Trading SPY Long Against Confirmed Down Trend 1-13-16

Trading SPY Long Against Confirmed Down Trend 1-13-16The conversation keeps coming up in the mentor room

Should I look to be long a weak stock, that is near support?

The answer is, it depends. It depends how much discipline you have. It depends how much experience you have. It depends if you have no better ideas to be long, than a weak stock.

The correct answer; if you’re struggling to break-even, is to only trade in the direction of the order flow. Any trade against the institutional activity is low probability. The very definition of a bad trading idea. Can you make money? Yeah. But it for every one trade against the trend, 9 lose money.

You need to make back the money for those bad trades, before you get profitable.

Day traders are faced with this scenario again today. Many beaten-down stocks have the potential to trend higher today. If you decide to trade long today, have minimum criteria: above the open, above yesterday’s close, best case above yesterday’s high with room to go.

Don’t be a hero, or you will miss some great short-sales (like yesterday), if you are searching for a bottom.

Stock Market Today: Map of the S&P 500

(click the map for a full view)

Trading SPY Long Against Confirmed Down Trend 1-13-16

Day Trading Game Plan: The SPY ETF Outlook

SPY 50% retracement is $198.75. This means the new levels to trade around are $190-200. Short-term mode until we can clear either of those levels.

Building a position within that window is the smart play. Day trade or 3 day swing trade in the SPY, for now.

(click the chart for a full view)

Trading SPY Long Against Confirmed Down Trend 1-13-16

Pete’s Notes:

  • Too many traders fishing for a bottom in oil. Some got lucky with a bounce late yesterday afternoon. Nothing wring with nibbling, but doing it with size, is stupid.
  • I understand stock traders wanting to look for a long, but force it to be above the open.

Technical Analysis | Charts of Interest

AMZN Inc. 

Buying Opportunity

AMZN held the earnings gap support from October, and the uptrend going back to August. Although it’s below the 20 ema and the 50 sma, I am looking for it to hold support, trade higher and test the $644.80 level.

(click the chart for a full view)


Trading SPY Long Against Confirmed Down Trend 1-13-16 | Stocks to Trade

> 20sma | positive the last 5 days | closed 2% higher from the open: CTSH, GNC, TWX

< 20sma | negative last 5 days | closed 2% lower from the open: wmb, wpz, rrc, scty, thc, gme, hes, dvn, rax, oke, etp, feye, rio, cyh, car, cop, wynn, lvlt, dow, hog, eog, apc, bbby, fti, pe, mur, clr, fosl

Bullish Ideas ATR/Volume/Price: FSLR, NEE, BXLT, DLTR

Bearish Ideas ATR/Volume/Price: thc, hes, dvn, mbly, oke, cyh, car, cop, eog, apc, lng, wdc, oxy, lvs, slb, gs, cat, mon, cf, pru, cah, nfx, ba, kmx, aapl, ups, stt, cof, mar, unp, akam, ua, amba, fb

Weak Stock Weak Close: rrc, thc, gme, hes, dvn, bhp, rax, etp, ctl, rio, yelp, cyh, car, cop, wynn, ntap, nbl, dow, hog, dsw, eog, apc, bbby, tsm, fti, fosl

Strong Stock Weak Close:

Weak Stock Strong Close: JD, CELG, CERN, VRX, AAL, AMTD

Strong Stock Strong Close:

20 day Breakdown: gme, hes, dvn, etp, rio, cop, ual, nbl, eog, dlph, apc, oxy, pxd, utx, payx, cf, nue, apa

20 Day Breakout: HBI, LULU, M, MO, PAA, PM, RAI


Watch List Longs: KSS, MCD, MO, PM, VLO, WMT

Watch List Short: wynn, ntap, dow, dd, lvs, c, glw, csco, nue, ebay, txn, jnpr, qcom, emc, tol, len, akam

Inside days: ge, bxlt, twx, pg, mos, celg, mas, bmy, bx, abbv, vrx, akam, luv, ua, ctrp, lyb, amgn, lly, wba, mon, gsk, swks, tsla, dg, azn, cag, amba, rlyp, mjn, kors

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