I know you don’t want to hear it, but we are in capital preservation mode.
Stock trading for a living is great when momentum and order flow are obvious, and mental torture when it’s not. The truth about trading for a living is that we earn 90% of our money on 40% of our trades.
The challenge for us is having discipline the other 60%. The other 60% are the trades that break-even. Trading is not a 9-5 job. The sooner you accept it, the easier it will be to be disciplined.
Disciplined means accepting risk on great ideas. You would be shocked at the number of traders who take risk, simply because the the market is open.
If your dream is to have a long trading career, you must have strict criteria for when to trade, and when not to.
The stock market is random but when to trade should not be.
Stock Market Today: Map of the S&P 500
(click the map for a full view)
The price action int he SPY is confusing a lot of traders. The amount of gaps (in both directions) and lack of momentum-type follow through is frustrating. Major support at the $188 level. Set to open lower near the $190.50 support.
(click the chart for a full view)
Stocks to Trade | Monday September 28, 2015
- A lot of stocks in the short-sale lists but many near support of over-sold. Mostly likely need a day or two of consolidation.
- Financials, oil and the SPY in a trading range since 9.25. This is a blue collar stock market, you need to work hard to get paid, especially day trading.
- The stock market needs a catalyst to get us out of the day-to-day bias.
Charts in Focus
AMBA is one of a few stocks with obvious order flow and room to go. A bearish engulfing candlestick and almost $8 to the next support level makes it a must watch this week.
(click the chart for a full view)
Trading Opportunities Remain Stock Specific, today’s list is weighted to the short side again.
Earnings in play today > 1M avg shares:
Stocks that showed Relative Strength Yesterday– contra to the SPY negative change from the open on 9/25/15: HFC, AEM, BIG, CRUS, DNKN, DYN, HFC, PBF
Above the 20sma, up for the week and closed 2% higher from the open: AEM, BIG, CRUS, DNKN, HFC
Below the 20sma, Down for the week and closed 2% lower from the open: amba, xpo, gpro, hznp, wynn, mbly, myl, feye, baba, lulu, lrcx, stx, wdc, amgn, agn, apc, bmy, ual, bhi, cop
Bullish Ideas ATR/Volume/Price: NKE, UA, TSLA, LB, TSO, HFC, ADBE, SBUX
Bearish Ideas ATR/Volume/Price: amba, xpo, gpro, hznp, wynn, mbly, lng, cf, myl, feye, mon, baba, lulu, cat, abbv, lrcx, stx, wdc, isis, amgn, hca, hca, mrk, mjn, mdt, mdvn, de, lvs, bidu, ppg, etn, twx, cah, utx, biib, hon, apa, mar, cern, hes, yum, oxy
Weak Stock Weak Close: amba, xpo, gpro, hznp, wynn, mbly, pot, myl, feye, baba, rax lulu, abbv, bkd, lrcx, stx, wdc, isis, amgn, endp, celg, adn, pcar, hca, teva, bax, mrk, mjn, mdt, cien, mdvn, abt, bxlt, fslr, gild, nvs, ar, yelp, gsk, cah, biib, jnj, esrx, scty, grub, apc, ncr, pfe, cern
Strong Stock Weak Close: TSLA, FB, AMZN, LLY, HOLX
Weak Stock Strong Close: agco, cci, five, bwa, dyn, pbf, tsco
Strong Stock Strong Close: BIG, JBL, CRUS, HFC
20 day Breakdown: celg, abt, xpo, wynn, agn, do, endp, mjn, pcar, slca
20 Day Breakout: HFC, CRUS, PG, NKE
2x Normal Volume: nke, finl, celg, xpo, bbby, crus, etn, vrx, agn, endp, mkn, hrtx, fl, tsco, ypf
Watch List Longs: SBUX, MO, ADBE, BRCM
Watch List Short: amgn, mrk, abt, kss, hon, jnj, cvs, adm, wmt, wynn, m, nue, hpq, lvs, qcom, dd, ntap, mrk, mjn, mdt, bxlt,
Inside days: cat, cf, ete, ntap, cbs, scty, ge, kim, grub, twx, rio, hot, bhp, rrc, ppg, slb