Stocks to Trade 11-13-15 | TSLA Bears Control the Close

Price action was obvious and fierce yesterday.

FED speakers aside, there were very few reasons to be long yesterday. We are looking at the same context today, without the FED noise in the background. This means the selling could be worse. The SPY made a valiant attempt to trade above the open price from 11-11:20, but that price action was shut down with a vengeance.

If you didn’t make money short-selling stocks yesterday afternoon, you simply weren’t paying attention.

This means you need better criteria to read the tape intra day.

Stock Market Today: Map of the S&P 500

(click the map for a full view)

Stocks to Trade 11-13-15

Day Trading Game Plan: The SPY ETF Outlook

SPY selling remained strong into the close. Expect a lower open and first push of momentum lower. Then things will get interesting. If a wave of buying stocks does not happen before 11am, I believe we will have another day of heavy selling with volume, into the close.

(click the chart for a full view)

Stocks to Trade 11-13-15

Pete’s Notes:

  • 50% retracement in the SPY is @ $200.
  • Trading the financials very challenging from day-to-day. There is easier money out there.
  • Inside days in AAPL and FB. Look for trend day breakouts.

Charts in Focus

TSLA Tesla Motors

Short-term support in TSLA coming up, after that we are looking a drop to $182

(click the chart for a full view)

Stocks to Trade 11-13-15

Stocks to Trade 11-13-15

Stocks to Trade 11-13-15 | TSLA Bears Control the Close

Relative strength to yesterday’s SPY negative change from the open: FEYE, JD, KATE, UTX, WLL, WTW, YELP

> 20sma, positive week and closed 2% higher from the open: WTW, YELP

<20sma, negative last 5 days and closed 2% lower from the open: vrx, myl, apc, gpro, cat, adm, stx, mnk, fit, etp, hca, aet, de, tsn, scty, see, tsla, ip, thc, oke, ir, amba


Bearish Ideas ATR/Volume/Price: vrx, m, qcom, apc, gpro, cat, stx, cvs, mnk, feye, etp, hca, wba, endp, celg, skx, aet, ibm, dg, wdc, de, hcn, scty, wynn, lvs, tsla, lng, cmi, teva, gmcr, thc, cerm akam, amba, mdvn

Weak Stock Weak Close: kmi, vrx, apc, gpro, cat, adm, stx, mnk, fit, etp, hca, wmb, fl, aet, epd, de, scty, tsla, ip, ip,

Strong Stock Weak Close: ETFC, PBF, DHI

Weak Stock Strong Close: feye, pot

Strong Stock Strong Close: WTW

20 day Breakdown: kmi, apc, adm, stx, fit, etp, tjx, xrt, fl

20 Day Breakout: ACAS, SBH, TAP, YELP

2x Normal Volume: SYF, KSS, GE, SBH, KR, ALLY, M, MNK, FL, ADM, FAST


Watch List Short: adm, bhi, unh, aet, cvs, axp, wmt, tjx, hal, bby,

Inside days: aapl, fb, baba, m, yhoo, qcom, feye, bhi, wfm, tgt, gps, wy, skx, coh, dg, wdc, amzn, scty, bidu, dltr, yoku, sndk, trip

Elon Musk and TSLA need more than P.T. Barnum style of marketing to convince Wall St. the company can achieve it’s lofty forecasts.

Why Tesla Will Fall Far Short Of Elon Musk’s Model X Delivery Forecast


Elon Musk has forecast that Tesla will deliver between 36,000 and 41,000 Model X vehicles in 2016.

Musk’s forecast is a classic example of what Daniel Kahneman calls the “Planning Fallacy.” Musk is exuberantly overoptimistic in predicting the costs and time required to produce the Model X.

Using Kahneman’s approach, and using the Model S rollout as a baseline case, we predict Tesla will be able to manufacture and deliver 18,000 Model X vehicles in 2016.

Supply will not be Tesla’s biggest problem, though, because the company likely will struggle to find buyers for 18,000 Model Xs, at least with a base price of $95,000.

This article forecasts how many Model Xs Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) will be able to manufacture and deliver in 2016, as well as how much demand exists for those cars.

It begins by reviewing Elon Musk’s forecast of the number of Model Xs that Tesla will deliver next year. It then predicts how many cars the company can actually supply, based on a historical baseline case. It next examines the demand side of the equation by quantifying the worldwide market for ultra-luxury SUVs and estimating what part of that market Tesla can capture.

It cross-checks the company’s calculated market share by seeking clues in the scanty reservation yield data now available.

The conclusions are sobering. Musk’s forecast of 2016 Model X production is exuberantly optimistic. However, even with all the supply issues Tesla will face, supply will not ultimately be the largest problem. At a base price of $95,000, anemic demand will be what confines the Model X to a tiny niche of the market.

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