Opportunity versus risk is a delicate balance for a self-directed trader…
Our goal is to accept risk in exchange for potential reward. We consider; How much can I probably earn, against how much risk should I accept to find out?
Probably is the key word there. We need to know what is probably going to happen. We can’t know what is definitely is going to happen next. Accepting this fact relieves all of the pressure to be right. There is no right or wrong in trading. There is only probability in stock trading.
Then we face a look in the mirror. Once we accept we are trading for probability, then we must trust the person in the mirror to follow the plan (assuming we have one).
Great trading…profitable trading, is knowing what is probably going to happen, then knowing definitely what you are going to do.
If you had a hard time reading the stock market the last quarter, there is a good chance you had the formula backwards.
Let’s make a commitment together to finish the year strong. Let’s make Q4 the time we remember. Together let’s look back on Q4 of 2015 as the time we turned the corner and became professional. Let’s make it the time we remember as the time it “clicked.”
Let’s do it together.
If you are ready, let’s do this. No excuses.
*Plenty of free trader training here if you are looking for a new edge.
Stock Market Today: Map of the S&P 500
(click the map for a full view)
The SPY continues to alternate between yea and nay. It’s driving a lot of ES futures traders crazy. I can see why. It’s challenging to sink your teeth into a long or a short now with a perspective longer than day-to-day. Nothing wrong with that, just be aware you are defining an edge on the shortest of time frames. “Old-school” day trading in da house.
(click the chart for a full view)
Stocks to Trade | Wednesday October 1, 2015
- Yesterday’s strong close and solid volume indicated higher open. Have to admit I did not expect another gap like this. Trade what you see.
- AAPL, inside day should be viewed as neutral-to-weak price action with the strength of yesterday’s tape.
Charts in Focus
Solid breakout to 52 week highs. Not a high average true range for day traders but a good look for a swing trade. Some resistance on the charts at $26 but room to go after that.
(click the chart for a full view)
Stocks to Trade 10-1-15
Earnings in play today > 1M avg shares: MU
Relative weakness to yesterday’s bullish market: gmcr, tso, wrk, wwav, wynn
> 20sma, positive week and closed 2% higher from the open: ADI, COP, CVX, HFC, JD, NFLX, SNDK, TEL
<20sma, negative last 5 days and closed 2% lower from the open: gmcr, wynn
Bullish Ideas ATR/Volume/Price: NKE, ADBE, HFC, SBUX,
Bearish Ideas ATR/Volume/Price: amba, gpro, xpo, wynn, mnk, ete, vrx, wmb, lng, cf, lulu, hp, wpz, qrvo, myl, rrc, lvs, etp, feye, paa, hes, apc, cat, apa, uri, stx, abbv, mon, slb, baba, oke, hal, mjn, etn, wndp, lrcx, amgn, de, celg, zts, ppg, ir, mrk, gmcr, bhi, hot, mdt, cof, cah, cvs, abc, cern, utx,
Weak Stock Weak Close: adsk, fti, gmcr, rax, wynn
Strong Stock Weak Close:
Weak Stock Strong Close: gpro, xpo, mnk, ete, vrx, wmb, wpz, dyn, rrc, etp, bkd, paa, hes, kmi, apa, scty, epd, agn, endp, lrcx, se, hpq, bhi, mdvn,
Strong Stock Strong Close: JBLU, NVDA, NKE, WEC, EIX, HRB, ED, HFC, BBY,
20 day Breakdown: adsk, disca, do, ir, lvs, rax, rdc,
20 Day Breakout: AAP, EQR, GXP, INFY, NVDA, PAYX, RL, SYNA, WUBA
2x Normal Volume: VRX, WDC, ETE, ENDP, DOW, HZNP, PAA, ETP, WPZ, AGN, IR, MNK, DEPO, WMB, V
Watch List Longs: SBUX, MO, BBY, ADBE
Watch List Short: abt, slb, hal, amgn, kss, adm, mrk, bhi, cvs, wynn, lvs, nue, m, tol, len, vz,
Inside days: aapl, fb, kmi, yhoo, pypl, myl, atvi, teva, mdt, rai, mas, pot, se, ual, cvs, dhi, cog, cvc, feye, ua, wynn, tmus, crm, wba, nee, kss tol