Today’s Trading Lesson | 7-26-16
How bad do you want trading to be a career?
I’m sure you work hard. I’m sure you read hundreds of stock charts every night. But how much do you pay attention?
Yesterday we offered some insight into correctly setting your bias for the day. Be long.
Short sales were not the correct play, unless those stocks were in a down trend. The market traded lower for the first half of the day yesterday, and of course we received emails about “missed opportunity” to short the market.
“Pete! You said to look for longs so I let those trade go…!
Yes I did. And I will keep saying it. I tried to short strong stocks for years. I tried to pick tops. In the long run, it doesn’t work. You need to stop thinking day-to-day and think long-term probabilities.
Do you want a career or are you in a race to place as many trades as you can? Be smart. If your strong stocks, trade lower, you should still be looking for a long. ** Use the hourly chart top reset your intra day bias if the stock is trading lower from the open. (Don’t look for a long unless the 60 minute chart is green)
Institutions don’t change their bias in one day. It takes time. You need to learn to recognize the signs, and change your bias when they do.
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On the Tape Today...
$UTX earnings today. Get updates here after the announcement (see chart)
$NKE relative strength, holds the 20 sma as support and a bottom tail. Bullish idea today.
$MMM clean bull flag and comfortably above key, rising moving averages. $187.22 target.
$CVS momentum short sale, target of $91.75
$UTX 7-26-16 (Click to Enlarge)
U.S. stock futures waver ahead of Fed, key earnings
U.S. stock futures struggled for direction on Tuesday, with investors opting for the sidelines ahead of the closely watched Federal Reserve meeting and a deluge of earnings, including updates from McDonald’s, Verizon and Apple.
Investors are wary of making any big moves ahead of an interest rate decision from the Fed, due on Wednesday. The central bank kicks off its meeting on Tuesday, its first gathering since the U.K. on June 23 voted to leave the European Union.
Earnings deluge: Earnings are also a major factor on investors’ minds this week, with the busy lineup continuing on Tuesday.
DuPont DD, +0.66% , United Technologies Corp. UTX, -0.46% , Reynolds American Inc. RAI, +0.04% , Caterpillar Inc. CAT, -0.87% , McDonald’s Corp. MCD, -0.67% and Verizon Communications Inc. VZ, -0.41% are just some of the companies slated to report premarket.
After the market closes on Tuesday, Apple Inc. AAPL, -0.34% , Twitter Inc. TWTR, +1.52% and Panera Bread Co. PNRA, +0.67% will report.Read More — >>
Stock Market Today: Heatmap of the S&P 500
Stock Trading Today 7-26-16 | $TWTR | $AAPL
Apple earnings: Another iPhone decline, stronger software revenue expected
Apple Inc. is expected to report its second straight quarter of iPhone declines on Tuesday, but the company’s software and services business could provide growth that hardware sales have lost.
Apple AAPL, -1.34% is on tap to report results for its fiscal third quarter after the market closes Tuesday. The company has struggled to grow hardware sales in recent quarters as customers await next-generation devices, take longer to upgrade and opt for cheaper competitors more often than in the past. Last quarter,
Apple reported the first year-over-year iPhone sales decline in the history of the smartphone, which generates the majority of Apple profitsRead More — >>
Tape Reading the SPY ETF
$SPY price action quiet again ahead of the FOMC tomorrow (Wednesday).
The BREXIT rally off the $199 level needs to catch it’s breath. If you’re finding yourself pressing trades when the market contracts like this, then you are focusing on the wrong thing. You should be looking back on the viscous three week rally, and ask yourself why you didn’t earn more.
You don’t need to push when you make what you’re supposed to, in great market conditions. We can expect the same until after the FOMC tomorrow. In the meantime there are plenty of earnings stocks in play.
Stocks in Play: $TWTR research on finviz.com
$TWTR NEWS: What to expect when Twitter reports earnings.
Analysts expect flat user growth to overshadow revenue gains.
Twitter Inc. is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings after the market closes Tuesday.
Since its last earnings report, Twitter TWTR, +1.52% has made multiple product updates aimed at simplifying the platform and jump-starting slowing user growth. But these updates have been met with fear that the platform is still too complicated and rumors that the company may be acquired by a bigger player.
Here’s what to expect:
Earnings: Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Twitter to report earnings of 9 cents per share. The Estimize consensus, made up of 163 crowdsourced estimates, is 11 cents.Read More — >>
Twitter Is Turning Into the World’s Most Interactive TV Network
Following its latest streaming deals, it’s safe to say that Twitter’s (TWTR) foray into professional live video isn’t a mere test or a sideshow, but a major initiative that it’s committing substantial financial, engineering and advertising resources towards.
And the effort just might boost user growth and engagement in a way that the much-hyped launch of Twitter’s Moments feature has apparently failed to.
Today, the microblogging platform announced it will stream out-of-market MLB and NHL games for free once per week, as well as a nightly program created by sports video content provider 120 Sports.Continue Reading – >
Stocks to Trade 7-26-16 | Tuesday Edition
Short-Term Trading Momentum:
Positive the last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% higher from the open: JWN, TSLA, LB, GILD, YELP
Negative last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% lower from the open: slca, sm, dvn, clr, nfx, trgp, apa, nov, pxd, hal, eog, skx
Quarterly Order Flow:
Bullish Stocks to Trade: HLF, VMW, EA, LRCX, AMGN, IBM, COST, HD, MBLY, AMZN, SLB, CHTR
Bearish Stocks to Trade: hes, nflx, bidu, skx, psx,
2x Normal Volume: GLNG, SKX, DE
Inside days: csco, t, luv, slb, sbux, qcom, ko, mbly, symc, oln, swks, dhi, bmy, ma, sti, mdt, jci, ctsh, ba, unp, cce, dfs, lng, pnc, adbe, stt, adm, hog, kmx