Today’s Trading Lesson | 7-14-16
Yes, yes there is.
I wish I knew each trade doesn’t need to make money. This knowledge would have saved me years of searching for “the answer.”
We develop strategies that have an edge but we desire trade-by-trade results. That mindset is contradicting the very definition of probability.
Strive for discipline on each trade, but judge and iterate your strategy over a large sample**. We desire our “ten perfect trades’ to produce a profit, but we should not care, which of those ten will be the winners.
** 100 trades is a good starting point to judge the validity of a strategy.
On the Tape Today...
$FB long term trend intact but a tough swing trade. Day trade or investment in my opinion (see chart)
$PYPL topping tail into strong $40 resistance. Book profits if long into today's open.
$CF short sale into $27 gap fill resistance level. $25.63 target.
$CSX exhaustion volume, don't get suckered into buying the top.
$FB 7-14-16 (Click to Enlarge)
Dow futures jump 100 points as traders bank on BOE rate cut
U.S. stocks were on track to extend their run into record territory on Thursday, with futures moving firmly higher ahead of a rate decision from the Bank of England that could force the Federal Reserve to delay its next rate hike.
If the benchmarks manage to keep the gains through the end of the trading day, the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.01% and Dow average DJIA, +0.13% will score another record close and a fifth straight day of gains. The two stock indexes eked out meager gains on Wednesday, but enough to land them in record territory as investors waited for the rate decision from the Bank of England.
The U.K. central bank will announce its policy decision at noon London time, or 7 a.m. Eastern Time, and traders are largely pricing in a rate cut to a fresh record low of 0.25% from 0.5%. That would mark the first rate change from the BOE in seven years, coming on the heels of the U.K.’s Brexit referendum in June, which sparked jitters in financial markets as well as fear of a recession in the countryRead More — >>
Stock Market Today: Heatmap of the S&P 500
Stock Trading Today 7-14-16 | $JPM Earnings
UnitedHealth, Microsoft Lift Dow To New High; Nasdaq Holds Above 5000
Stocks finished narrowly mixed Wednesday as the market paused from its recent rally. But the Dow Jones industrial average eked out another new high, thanks to gains from UnitedHealth Group and Microsoft.
The Dow closed up 0.1%, while the S&P 500 was fractionally higher. The Nasdaq composite eased 0.3%, though it held above the 5000 level. Volume was lighter across the board vs. Tuesday, according to preliminary data.
Oil stocks led the downside in the stock market today, as West Texas Intermediate crude slid nearly 4% to about $45 a barrel. The Energy Information Administration’s weekly industry report showed a surprise rise in U.S. oil stockpiles. Biotechs and retailers also lagged.
Gold miners were the biggest gainers, with gold futures climbing nearly 1% to $1,344 an ounce. Managed care providers and media stocks advanced too. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) led the Dow with a 1.2% gain. Shares are nearly extended from a 135.21 flat-base buy point cleared June 2.Read More — >>
Tape Reading the SPY ETF
$SPY set to open higher off of the Bank of England surprise to leave rates unchanged.
The pre market high is $217.15 (7:30 am). We should note that the $SPY has already traded it’s ATR from yesterday’s close. The smart long to day is bidding the first move lower. A push higher off the open would not have much legs to the upside.
Planning into tomorrow and next week; if we get a trend day down today, we are most likely looking at a short term top.
Stocks in Play: $JPM research on finviz.com
$JPM NEWS: J.P. Morgan profit falls but beats estimates
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. posted stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings and a surprise increase in revenue, while its expenses declined.
Shares rose 2.4% premarket.
The largest U.S. bank by assets reported a profit of $6.2 billion, or $1.55 a share. That compares with a profit of $6.29 billion, or $1.54 a share, in the same period of 2015. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected earnings of $1.43 a share.
Revenue rose to $25.21 billion. Analysts had expected $24.16 billion.
Costs fell to $13.64 billion from $14.5 billion.
J.P. Morgan, run by Chairman and Chief Executive James Dimon, kicks off second-quarter earnings season for large U.S. banks, offering investors a snapshot of a quarter that analysts expect will be characterized by Brexit’s surprise on the back end. Plummeting bond yields in the wake of that promise to add to pressure on bank profits in coming quarters.
So far in 2016, J.P. Morgan’s shares are down 4.4% compared with a 9.5% decrease in the KBW Nasdaq Bank index.Read More $JPM — >>
Stock Trading Today 7-14-16 | Thursday Edition
Short-Term Trading Momentum:
Positive the last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% higher from the open: AEM, MOS
Negative last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% lower from the open: vrx, acad, xon, sm, fslr
Quarterly Order Flow:
Bullish Stocks to Trade: AEM, AET, UNH, IBM, LRCX, WDC, LULU, CHTR, MAR, EA
Bearish Stocks to Trade: fslr, ma, vlo
2x Normal Volume: TEVA, VRX, HFC, YUM
Inside days: ge, abx, xom, nvda, abbv, luv, ebay, mo, wba, dow, amzn, ua, wdc, hrb, rai, mat, adm, dish, kim, amtd