Today’s Trading Lesson…
Ten Trading Tips to Review the Holiday Weekend:
- Don’t whine about market conditions being tough. That’s like an entrepreneur complaining about competition. Learn how to adapt.
- Spend most of your time developing an edge. This means real trades. Not paper trades.
- Commit to one strategy, one edge. You can’t trade everything. You think you can but you can’t. Trust me on this one.
- Document your trading plan on one sheet of paper. If it takes more than this it will be difficult to follow.
- Never move or cancel a stop-loss. You put it there for a reason. If you still like the scenario reduce risk. You can always put the shares back on.
- It will take you longer to learn how to make money than you think. Learning how to trade is simple. Learning how to make money requires experience.
- Don’t ask for trade ideas. Learn how to find your own. You want to put yourself in a position where you are responsible for your success. (analyze the trades on this blog and dissect them. Ask why they might be good trades.)
- Learn what not to do first. This will help you stay in the game as you gain experience. Learn to minimize mistakes and avoid low probability scenarios.
- Do not trade bigger until you have a track record of performance. At least 3 consecutive months. This means you have an edge and you can follow it.
- Learn the market conditions that warrant adding to trades, holding longer and multiple positions
On the Tape Today...
$V and $MA heavy selling on a strong day. (see chart)
$PRU bear flag gap fill for a sell short today. Yesterday's high is the short area.
$PM set to try the $102.50 break out to 52 week highs again. Most likely Tuesday.
$CMG below the 20 ema if you need another short sale idea today.
$V 7-1-16 (Click to Enlarge)
Opinion: Why investors’ post-Brexit worry could ignite a powerful U.S. stock rally
The U.S. stock market kicks off the second half of 2016 facing a huge Wall of Worry. And that’s bullish. In fact, one stock market sentiment index is now in the vicinity of the extremely low levels that, in the past, preceded sizeable rallies.
Consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of short-term Nasdaq-oriented stock-market timers monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI). Since the Nasdaq responds especially quickly to changes in investor mood, and because those timers are themselves quick to shift their recommended exposure levels, the HNNSI is my most sensitive barometer of investor sentiment.
This average currently stands at minus 55.6%, which means the average Nasdaq-oriented stock market timer is allocating more than half of his short-term equity trading portfolio to going short. That is an aggressive bet that the market will keep declining.Continue Reading
Stock Market Today: Heatmap of the S&P 500
Stock Trading Today 7-1-16
Everybody Back In? Boeing, Lockheed Soar As Stocks Rally For 3rd Straight Session
The S&P 500 led with a 1.4% gain, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones industrial average added 1.3% each. Preliminary figures showed volume was slightly higher across the board vs. Wednesday. The Nasdaq retook both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, one day after the Dow and S&P 500 reclaimed their 50-day lines.
Food stocks were big winners in the stock market today. Hershey soared 17% to a new high in massive volume amid reports on a buyout offer from Mondelez International (MDLZ), which rose 6%. Later in the day, the chocolate maker’s board of directors unanimously rejected the 107-per-share cash-and-stock bid.Continue Reading
Stock Trading Today 7-1-16 | Friday Edition
Short-Term Trading Momentum:
Positive the last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% higher from the open: MDLZ, K, GIS, RIO, ATVI, TSN, YELP, NEM, ADM, LULU, AFL, KHC, PEP, ABC, COH, MPC
Negative last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% lower from the open: endp, v, lgf, ma
Quarterly Order Flow:
Bullish Stocks to Trade: MBLY, PM, LULU, CVX, AEM, CNC, AET, DLR, UNH, DG, DLTR, NFX,
Bearish Stocks to Trade: ma, v, lbtya, rcl, dlph, nxpi, bidu, lyb, tif, alk, ual, pru, kmx
2x Normal Volume: MDLZ, V, LGF, MBLY, MA, GIS, K, STT, YELP
Inside days: emc, cop, hlt, nflx, abbv, ccl, scty, celg, mon, nfx, mur, clr, nbl, apa, skx, jwn, wynn, lng, lb