Today’s Trading Lesson…
Assessing Probabilities | Stock Trading Today 6-29-16
“How do I recognize a good day ? When should I push my leverage versus when should I scale back ?”
The proper question is, “What’s available right now, and what’s available today?” This question must be answered in your journal every day. Not, “I got in here. I got out there.” That’s not what goes in your trading journal.
A good journal entry begins like this; “Today was a good day to trade and I took advantage of it. This is why.” Or, “Today was a tough day to trade and I didn’t recognize it. “This” is what I need to recognize next time.”
Assessing probabilities affects many different parts of each trade. Such as share size, what types of orders you place, profit potential, and how you would adjust your stop-loss, whether you plan to add to a trade or exit into momentum.
When you journal, treat it like an experiment. Tweak elements and make notes until you understand trade expectation. This makes trade management easier.
On the Tape Today...
$WYNN relative weak close yesterday and inside day. Sell short below $88. (see chart)
$LULU solid tape before BREXIT, I like the bottom tails look for a long.
$RCL short sale below $65. Profit target $62.50
$INSIDE DAYS in play today. Big list looking for breakouts. Scroll to the bottom of the blog.
$WYNN 6-29-16 (Click to Enlarge)
U.S. stocks poised to rise again as Brexit worries fade
U.S. stock futures pointed to a higher open on Wall Street Wednesday, with appetite for buying reviving as Brexit worries subsided, and as investors waited for reports on consumer spending and home sales.
“Why are the markets up? [Isn’t the U.K] leaving the world’s largest trading bloc? Well, that’s the thing — not for a while, it seems,” wrote Augustin Eden, analyst at Accendo Markets, in a note. “Post-Brexit is years away, and the politicians are cleverly stalling the process of, er, starting the process.”
The U.K. has yet to trigger Article 50 of the EU’s treaty, the first step in the withdrawal process, even as EU leaders push for a quick start to exit negotiations. British Prime Minister David Cameron, who has announced his resignation, has said he will leave to exit process to his successor.
Continue reading on marketwatch.com
Stock Market Today: Heatmap of the S&P 500
Stock Trading Today 6-29-16 | $MON Earnings
Stocks Rebound With Big Gains As Dow, S&P 500 Retake Key Support
The Nasdaq surged 2.1%, the S&P 500 rallied 1.8%, and the Dow Jones industrial average added 1.6%. However, volume was lighter across the board vs. Monday, according to preliminary data.
The Dow and S&P 500 regained their 200-day moving average after breaking the support level Monday, as stocks sold off hard for a second session following Britain’s decision to withdraw from the European Union. The Nasdaq is still 3% below its 200-day line.
JPMorgan led the Dow with a 3% gain in heavy volume to recover most of its Monday loss. It’s still well below its 50-day and 200-day lines after Friday’s 7% plunge. Insurer Travelers also rose 3%, retaking its 50-day line as it continued shaping a flat base.
Energy stocks led the upside in the stock market today as West Texas Intermediate crude prices surged more than 3% to $47.89 a barrel. Biotechs and telecom-related stocks lifted the Nasdaq.
Continue reading on investors.com
Tape Reading the SPY ETF $SPY set to open at the 50% retracement level this morning. A common Fibonacci number used by many traders to determine the strength of the previous momentum or trend.
A push higher off the open makes the minor resistance at $206 the resistance to monitor. If we get there, I am looking to short.
Stocks in Play: $MON research on finviz.com
$MON NEWS: What to watch for in Monsanto earnings
A year ago, Monsanto Co. investors tuned into the company’s quarterly earnings call to glean perspective on a multibillion-dollar deal that company executives said could transform the agricultural sector: Monsanto’s bid for Syngenta AG.
On Wednesday, shareholders will do so again, only this time it is Monsanto that is the takeover target, entertaining a bid from German rival Bayer AG.
Monsanto last month rejected Bayer’s initial $62 billion offer as too low, but Bayer has continued to campaign for the deal among investors. Monsanto has said it is open to further talks, though the two sides have been at an impasse over valuation and the ability for Bayer to conduct a detailed analysis of Monsanto’s business.
Monsanto Chief Executive Hugh Grant and his team on Wednesday’s earnings call may be limited in what they can tell investors about the Bayer proposal. But the deal injects drama at a time when Monsanto’s core business in seeds and herbicides faces challenges from commodity and currency markets, as well as government regulators overseas
Stocks to Trade 6-29-16 | Wednesday Edition
Short-Term Trading Momentum:
Positive the last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% higher from the open: ENDP, RICE, MPC, WPZ, KSS, D
Negative last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% lower from the open: dd, dow, voya, rcl, ccl, wynn
Quarterly Order Flow:
Bullish Stocks to Trade: WPZ, CLR, NFX, OKE, LULU, UNH, CNC, DLTR, AEM, DG
Bearish Stocks to Trade: prgo, rcl, lb, stt, pnc, tsla, aapl, alk, kmx, mar, tif, ual, swks, cma, gild
2x Normal Volume: SCHW, ENDP, MET, CCL, DOW, LBTYA, LLY, VOYA, WNR, D, PNC
Inside days: schw, intc, dal, met, abx, emc, mrk, ebay, wdc, aig, hal, cop, aymc, wmb, mo, csx, luv, ual, mgm, cf, bk, cof, ctsh, stx, mos, ma, yum, amtd, oxy, ba, sti, stt, tol, bhi, mar, ibm, wynn