Stock Trading Today 12-14-16 | FOMC Rate Decision

Today’s Trading Lesson…

Identifying new trading opportunities isn’t magic. Trading your strategy is simple…if you have one! I’m not smarter than anybody, I want to help you understand how to put those pieces together.

As a team we are doing a great job of discussing order flow, then momentum, then reading the tape over the last 3 to 6 days, and then you add room-to-go. (profit potential)

So you have all of that criteria, and then you drop down to your intraday time frames. Only then do you ask which stocks right now match my higher time frames, and which ones are currently giving me a good risk spot otherwise known as acceptable risk which is relative to each of us.

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On the Tape Today...

$TSLA 12-14-16

$TSLA 12-14-16

$TSLA 12-14-16

TSLA | Tesla Motors continues to be sneaky bullish. Last week we called a TSLA inside day breakout, and noticed two that produced bullish days with above average volume. Yesterday gave us a trend day after 3 days of consolidation. The long-term down trend hit resistance at yesterday's highs, but the stock must be in your watch list. TSLA is poised for a breakout. (see chart)

TRIP | Trip Advisor Showing a clean bear flag, lower-highs, a topping tail and close in the lower end of the range. Looking for a new short-sale. $48.50 sell-stop,  with a $46.25 target to cover.

Message to Yellen: Don’t dodge questions on Trump stimulus plans

Fed risks being out of sync with post-election reality, say analysts

Some analysts are urging Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to be upfront with financial markets on Wednesday and say what many experts are thinking privately, that interest rates are going to rise at a faster pace than had been expected prior to the presidential election.

“The Fed should not make [this week’s meeting] a non-event. They should…use this as an opportunity to guide us with what they want to do in 2017,” said Bob Michele, chief investment officer at JP Morgan Asset Management, in an interview on Bloomberg Radio.

And that means four rate hikes in 2017, Michele said. “I think they should go in March,” he added.

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Stock Market Today: Heatmap of the S&P 500

$SP500 12-14-16

$SP500 12-14-16

Stock Trading Today 12-14-16 

Indexes Rattle Off New Highs; Apple, Intel, Seagate Climb

Stocks snapped back into a rally mode Tuesday, booking solid gains and new highs after Monday’s one-day pause.

Apple (AAPL) rose 1.7% and Intel (INTC) jumped 2.3% to lead the Dow.

Boeing (BA) reversed off early highs and slipped 0.3%, despite announcing a 30% dividend hike and a $14 billion share buyback program after Monday’s close.

Oil trimmed early gains, ending up a fraction, with West Texas Intermediate below $53 a barrel and Brent crude below $55. Gains faded despite strong economic data out of China and the naming of Exxon-Mobil (XOM) CEO Rex Tillerson as nominee for U.S. Secretary of State, both positives for oil prices.

Disk drive maker Seagate Technology (STX) spun up a 4% gain, retaking a 39.43 buy point in a six-week cup base. The stock ended still in buy range.

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Tape Reading the SPY ETF

$SPY continues to hold another strong hourly trend with no signs of distribution on the daily charts yet. Volume finished just over 100 million shares, solid but nothing close to showing order flow changing hands.

The game plan hasn’t changed. No reason to change your bias. Is the market due for a profit-taking decline? Yes, absolutely. But that doesn’t mean you stop trading long. And it especially doesn’t mean to be short. If you’ve been attempting to call a top, you missed out on some beautiful trend days.

Has the trading been easy during the Trump fueled rally? No, but the order flow is obvious.

The FOMC may change things a bit today.

Remember the charts don’t matter much during news induced catalysts. Be prepared to make fast decisions or stay on the sidelines for the afternoon.

$SPY 12-14-16

$SPY 12-14-16 | Hourly Chart

federal reserve

Stocks in Play: $SPY research on

Two Indicators of How Markets Will React to Fed Rate Decision

Given the fact that global markets have almost fully priced in a raise for the Fed funds target rate by a quarter percentage point at today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement at 2 p.m. EST, will we see a sell-the-news reaction?

That is the question on a lot of investors/traders minds. Those who are under-invested and playing via the dark side obviously are hoping that we do get a sell-the-news type reaction.

However, given the massive amount of market participants who are hoping, shouting or pleading for a pull-back tomorrow, will Mr. Market oblige?

As we all know, the markets seldom gives what the majority wants, no?

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The FOMC Will Raise Rates This Time – Here’s Why

Along with consensus, I fully expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.

Markets are very strongly in favour of a December hike, pricing in a 90 percent probability most recently. In fact, the focus is instead on what revisions to the Summary of Economic Projections (NYSE:SEP) the Fed will make in December.

Based on recent data flow which has been tracking strongly, Fed adjustments to the SEP should be minimal to none. Why Hike Now?


Stocks to Trade 12-14-16 | Wednesday Edition

Short-Term Trading Momentum:

Positive the last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% higher from the open: NBL, STX, NEM, CNQ, HES, TSLA, FB

Negative last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% lower from the open: teck, alxn, ntnx, urbn, acia, momo

Quarterly Order Flow:


Bearish Stocks to Trade: alxn, ntnx, acad, mdt, twlo, trip, aem

2x Normal Volume: PTEN, AVGO, ALXN 

Inside days: hbi, csx, apc, wmb, pypl, slb, aal, cog, met, vlo, unp, cat, ups, bhi, kors, pru

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