Today’s Trading Lesson…
Some traders just want to be right…
Losing trades drive them insane. A constant barrage of negative self-talk spirals out of control with: “What did I miss? What did I do wrong? Why did I lose money??”
If this sounds familiar, you need to stop. You need to start focusing on probabilities, not results. I know that sounds dumb, we trade to make money. Yes I know, but you are killing your chances by thinking every trade should be profitable.
Great traders focus on results over time. Break-even traders focus on the results of each trade.
We trade because we have an edge. An edge means over a large sample of perfect trades, our strategy should make money.
To become great, to become consistent, to get paid, month, after month–focus on the process of trading well. The money will follow.
Stop trading to be right. Stop trading to boost your ego.
Starting today view each trade as one of many. One of a group of perfect trades. If we make ten trades, we have no idea which of those ten will be the winners or the losers.
Stop hesitating, stop second guessing and stop trying to be perfect. Write a trading journal, pay attention, and adapt to results.
Just trade, and let your edge make you money.
On the Tape Today...
$MO Altria Group 11-30-16
$MO Altria Group closed above the open for eight out of ten days and approaching a long-term down trend line. Incredibly difficult to sustain and with resistance overhead. Looking for a higher open to test the previous days high and fail. Sets up a short-sale with a target of $63.25 (see chart)
$RCL | Royal Caribbean Cruises produced a solid momentum breakout from the July-November trading range. A perfect pause above the range and now a clean pause at the next resistance. Looking for a new breakout and $84.50 buy-stop with a swing trade target of $94.
MOTIVATION | Change Your Mind and Become Successful
Oil prices jump, but many still doubtful OPEC can get a deal done
Crude futures jumped Wednesday, even as many analysts were bearish that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will deliver an agreement later today on production cuts.
Oil prices were leaping higher after reports that OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said a deal to balance the struggling market will be done. Other key players also sounded upbeat.
An OPEC deal would be aimed at cutting into a global oversupply of oil that has severely depressed prices since 2014. A proposal would have the group cut production by more than a million barrels a day, which represents about 1% of the global oil supply.
Goldman Sachs says if OPEC reaches an accord on production, prices could rise to the low-$50-a-barrel range. If no deal is reached, oil prices could plunge below $40 a barrel.
Continue Reading on marketwatch.com
Stock Market Today: Heatmap of the S&P 500
Stock Trading Today 11-30-16
Stocks End Up; Will UnitedHealth Join Apple As An All-Time Super Growth Stock?
A late-hour sell-off took the shine off what looked to be a nice session for stocks Tuesday. The major indexes settled for pinched gains as volume rose.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) led the Dow 30 components, soaring 3.6% to 157.59 and continuing its impressive rebound since resuming a rally past a 141.88 handle buy point on a nearly three-month base.
Aetna (AET) ran up nearly 3% to 132.03 on Tuesday, extending recent gains. The insurance giant is now up 8% past an 121.70 early buy point within a nearly five-month cup-like pattern. EPS growth is expected to accelerate in 2017 at 9% vs. a 4% jump expected this year.
Humana (HUM), another fellow large cap play with a market value of $31.3 billion, rose 2% to 210 in fast trading and has gained 9.5% since surpassing a 191.75 entry within an unusual-looking four-month consolidation.
Continue Reading on investors.com
Tape Reading the SPY ETF
$SPY volumes continues to decline and the trading range becomes clear.
We see a perfect trend line break on the hourly charts and an equally perfect potential change of trend grinding into the $220.25-221.75 range.
Charts rarely unfold this pristine, but there you go. A charting unicorn.
So what does this mean? As long as the $SPY remains in this window and volume stays below 100 million shares, there is little edge to leaning on the $SPY as an indicator.
This leads to $TICK readings barely reaching plus or minus 1,000 and a flat $TRIN.
Easy to get chopped up in this consolidation. Smart traders look for stocks in play with above average volume or breakouts from inside days. (see both lists below)
The $218 support level remains the price to look for new aggressive bids.
Stocks in Play: $MSFT research on finviz.com
Microsoft (MSFT) News: Microsoft’s New iOS App Helps Clear Colorblind
A new iOS app from Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) could brighten the day for the 8% of the population who are effected by colorblindness. (Related: Can Microsoft Apps Compete With Android & Apple?) Called Color Binoculars, Microsoft’s app takes advantage of the phone’s camera to adjust colors in a manner that allows a person dealing with colorblind to see whatever object that’s within the camera’s frame.
And the images appears in the same way that a non-colorblind person would see it. “It’s an app that helps colorblind people distinguish color combinations that they would normally have trouble telling apart,” says creator Tom Overton in a Microsoft blog post.
Read More on investopedia.com
Microsoft Reportedly Strengthening Cloud Alliances in China
Shares of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT – Free Report) have been steadily trending higher over the last one year.
The stock generated a return of 9.10% as compared with the Zacks Computer-Software Industry’s year-to-date return of 10.17%. The upward momentum in the stock has been primarily driven by strong cloud growth.
The continuing enterprise strength, benefits from the Office 365 subscription model, strong growth prospects of Azure and promising new products are expected to generate top-line growth in 2016.
Continue Reading on zacks.com
Stocks to Trade 11-30-16 | Wednesday Edition
Short-Term Trading Momentum:
Positive the last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% higher from the open: ABBV, CHTR, EA, DISH, CMCSA, CTRP, DVMT, VMW, NUE, STLD
Negative last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% lower from the open: bax, acia, endp, trip
Quarterly Order Flow:
Bullish Stocks to Trade: UNH, CHTR, AET, RCL, CELG, BA, IONS, GS, LRCX, UAL, SDC, ADI, PRU, KMX, KSS, URI, UNP, MCD, IBM, COF, CAT, NVDA, BHI, DE, X
Bearish Stocks to Trade: fslr, acia, trip, htz, mdt, twlo, lly, bud, cci, vtr, agn, tsn, cvs
2x Normal Volume: BAX, ALL, DLPH
Inside days: t, intc, wfc, vz, key, vrx, aymc, gild, fitb, gg, ua, jblu, tgt, met, kss, pep, bby, mat, ma, tjx, ibm, pru, jwn, kors