Stock Trading Today 10-20-16 | $MSFT Earnings

Today’s Trading Education

The more distinctions you make, the more trading opportunities you will see.

The biggest trading challenge I see in my coaching calls center around one topic. Most stock traders understand entries, profit targets and the stop-loss. But the problem stumping these smart traders, always come back to the quality of the idea.

Better ideas make better traders. (Sounds like Papa Johns :))

These examples illustrate my point:

$NFLX traded in a box for months, then exploded on earnings. This trade show us momentum. Two days of momentum. That’s it. Prior to the news the stock was stuck.



$KORS offered a similar situation. Looks exciting, but again, short-term momentum. Very little evidence buyers are building a position. Very little commitment.

Yes, it’s a trade. No it’s not order flow.



$MA a different story here.
Is there any doubt in your mind who controls this stock? Buyers hold a grip since July.

Sure some weeks paused but you can visualize money committed to this stock.
This shows you clarity. Seek to trade this clarity.

A couple of days momentum gives you a solid idea. Order flow gives you great ideas.



On the Tape Today...

$AAPL still a solid long but I don't like the "doji" parade the last few weeks. $118 buy-stop is the trigger. Be patient, $120 is the initial target.(see chart)

$ABT short-sale below $40. Profit target to cover is $37.25.

$UAL breakout with a $55.75 buy-stop triggers an initial target to sell of $58.75.

$WBA continues to show lower-highs. A sell-short below yesterday's close of $77.18. Minor support @ $76 with an ultimate target of $73.

$AAPL 10-20-16 (Click to Enlarge)



U.S. stock futures in holding pattern after debate and ahead of big data dump

Analyst: Not much change in sentiment due to presidential debate

U.S. stock futures on Thursday pointed to a muted open, as traders braced for a raft of economic data and largely shrugged off the third and final presidential debate.

Investors are waiting for readings on jobless claims, existing-home sales and a key Philly Fed index.

“Last night’s final debate of the U.S. presidential campaign appears to have passed off without initiating any significant change in sentiment for the electorate,” said Tony Cross, a market analyst for TopTradr, in a note.

“Hillary Clinton remains in the lead, according to the polls, and the fortunes of USD/MXN certainly play this out with the pair briefly testing territory as low as 18.50,” Cross added.

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Stock Market Today: Heatmap of the S&P 500

$SPY Heatmap-10-20-16

$SPY Heatmap-10-20-16

Stock Trading Today 10-20-16 | $MSFT Earnings

Stocks Extend Gains For Second Day; AmEx Jumps, eBay Dives After Hours  

The major averages closed with modest gains Wednesday as earnings reports fueled big moves by Morgan Stanley (MS) and Intel (INTC).

Solar, oil and steel stocks led the upside in today’s stock market action, as West Texas intermediate crude futures surged 2.6% to settle at $51.60 a barrel, a 15-month high. U.S. stockpiles fell by a bigger-than-expected 5.2 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration.

After the close, American Express (AXP) jumped 5% after its Q3 results beat views. It gained 2% in the regular session. But eBay (EBAY) plunged 8% in late trade after its Q3 results topped estimates, but it forecast Q4 EPS of 52-54 cents a share vs. the consensus estimate of 54 cents.

Morgan Stanley easily beat quarterly estimates with a 135% surge in earnings and 14% rise in revenue. Shares rose 2%, ending just above a 32.47 buy point.

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Tape Reading the SPY ETF

$SPY technically “well-bid” for two days with higher-highs and higher-lows.

This means you should trade the short-term momentum. This means expect bullish follow through for one more day.

Let’s be clear, the market has no bias. Neither buyers nor sellers control the picture. This means our trade expectation gets reduced for cash flow.

This analysis of the stock market today separates the profitable traders from the wanna-be’s. Until we possess the skills to separate neutral trading scenarios, from great, we will struggle.

To trade profitably we must make these distinctions.





Stocks in Play: $MSFTresearch on

$MSFT Earnings NEWS: Microsoft earnings to highlight recent PC revival

Microsoft is expected to report a stronger transition to the cloud

After crushing earnings expectations last quarter, analysts will have a close eye on whether Microsoft Corp. can continue to show a strong migration to the cloud when it reports fiscal first-quarter earnings after the market closes on Thursday.

Many analysts expect Microsoft MSFT, +0.37% to report another strong quarter, mostly because of increased momentum in its newer cloud business. The company’s personal-computing division, which fell 4% year-over-year last quarter, may also show improvement this quarter.

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What to Look for When Microsoft (MSFT) Posts Q1 Earnings

Microsoft (MSFT) is slated to post a year-over-year increase in both earnings and revenue for the fiscal 2017 first quarter on Thursday.

NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Microsoft (MSFT) is expected to report fiscal 2017 first quarter earnings and revenue that have risen year-over-year after Thursday’s market close. Analysts surveyed by FactSet are modeling adjusted earnings of 68 cents per share on $21.70 billion in revenue for the quarter.

Microsoft posted adjusted earnings of 67 cents a share on $20.38 billion in revenue for the year-ago period. Nomura recently maintained a “buy” rating and $65 price target on the stock, citing expectations for a “solid quarter” by Microsoft.




Stocks to Trade 10-20-16 | Thursday Edition

Short-Term Trading Momentum:

Positive the last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% higher from the open: FSLR, KORS, SM, HAL, MUR, NFX, DAL, UAL, AAL, IP, NFLX, COF

Negative last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% lower from the open: srpt, acad, ions, twlo, yelp, tso, rice, tsn

Quarterly Order Flow:


Bearish Stocks to Trade: pbf, acad, ions, twlo, low, cvs, bmy, aet, mcd, teva, duk, hon, tjx<72, dis, mbly, lulu

2x Normal Volume: NFLX, HAL, STX, TSLA, KORS, LULU, HOG

Inside days: baba, bmy, ipg, dm, so, aig, fti, utx, exc, gpor, hca, twlo, tgt, jnpr, xel, twx, mbly, aep, hig, esrx, ctrp, tjx, amzn, peg, nwl, de, clvs

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