Today’s Trading Lesson…
Could You Profitably Trade One Million Dollars?
From 2000 through 2012 I managed professional traders.This means I allocated buying power and controlled risk for hundreds of traders, while trading full-time for myself.
Each morning my traders asked (pleaded) for more leverage. My answer never changed;
“Prove you can manage risk, prove you can hold your winners.”
Prove you had a plan. Prove you could follow it. You received more buying power.Trading success comes from your plan, not from the market. Your plan is repeatable. What happens in the market is not. A belief in order flow gives you conviction.
Imagine decisions instead of reactions. If you’re struggling you’re reacting.
I allocated millions in buying power. I bet on preparation over feelings. You should do the same. Imagine trading one millions dollars. You earn 50% of the profits, but you owe 100% of the losses. Would you accept?
If you visualized the losses, your trading strategy needs work. Before we move forward let’s discuss your strategy. Do you have one? Is it documented and repeatable?
You may not have a trading plan or a strategy, because it’s hard work.
Let’s answer a simple question: “Which is harder; consistently losing money, or committing seven days to organize your resources?” Yes that’s right. A trading plan is nothing more than organizing your resources, with a strategy.
When we work together, we organize your resources, with order flow, with your skills, with the market.
We look for order flow, then look for opportunities– that match your resources. Simple –but you need to get organized. If you’re ready, I can help. == >>
On the Tape Today | 1-31-17
ADBE | Adobe Systems offering a clean pause after a solid breakout and momentum push to new highs. Couple the price action with a strong close and the stock must be in your game plan today. Looking for a $114.10 buy-stop to trigger a new long and a $118 target to sell.
QCOM | Qualcomm Inc produces an inside day breakdown with room to go on a new swing trade to the short side. Planning for a $53.50 sell-short, or a breakdown of the first 30 minutes if the stock opens higher. The initial target to cover is $51.25.
Stock Market Today: Heatmap of the S&P 500
Stock Market Today 1-31-17 | Tuesday Edition
Trump Backlash Turns Mexicans Against Nafta
The Zocalo, a vast square in the heart of Mexico City, has been a gathering place since the days of the Spanish conquistadors. Walk through it today and you’ll encounter, as expected, intense hatred of Donald Trump.
But what you’ll also find is that Mexicans are just as furious at their own government for letting the U.S. president push their country around.
Health insurer Aetna’s quarterly profit beats estimates
Health insurer Aetna Inc (AET.N), whose $34 billion deal for Humana Inc (HUM.N) was blocked last week, reported a higher-than-expected quarterly profit on Tuesday, helped by higher premiums for its plans.
The No. 3 U.S. health insurer’s net profit fell to $139 million, or 39 cents per share, in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, from $321 million, or 91 cents per share, a year earlier.
U.S. Travel Ban Puts Saudi Arabia In An Awkward Position
In addition to creating mass chaos in America’s airports and general confusion around the world, Trump’s immigration ban is putting Saudi Arabia, a key ally in the middle-east, in a fairly awkward position.
Per the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s immigration ban, which currently does not include Saudi Arabia, has put the country in the awkward position of having to manage a desire to pursue stronger ties with the U.S. at the risk of alienating key allies, like Yemen and Sudan, that will inevitably view such a move as abandoning Muslim neighbors.
Eurozone inflation jumps in January
Eurozone inflation hit a near four-year high in January following an increase in energy prices.
Inflation in the 19-country bloc jumped to 1.8% last month from 1.1% the month before. Data from Eurostat also showed that the eurozone’s unemployment rate fell to 9.6% in December, the lowest rate since May 2009.
Dollar Steady on Month-End Flows; Pound Drops, Volatilities Rise
The dollar reversed early losses to keep its consolidation theme of the past week intact, with month-end flows capping the upside on the currency.
Sterling drops for a fourth day to test support above 1.2400. Stops on long positions versus the dollar and the euro were triggered earlier Tuesday amid a lack of news.
Fed likely to keep rates steady as it awaits Trump economic plan
The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday in its first policy decision since President Donald Trump took office, as the central bank awaits greater clarity on his economic policies.
The Importance Of Immigrants On Wall Street, In Silicon Valley And For The United States
Some of the most well-known brands in American culture were established by immigrants or their children. So were more than 200 companies on the 2010 Fortune 500 list — a number vastly disproportionate to the ratio of U.S. immigrants to native-born Americans.
Tape Reading the SPY ETF $SPY price action (and many indices) showing a potential “island top.”
The chart pattern typically shows the end of current order flow. Essentially the last gasp of trade potential as the institutions unload their final shares. Typically the key word there…
Although POTUS continues to give us every reason to see a top, volume clocked in at a measly 75 million shares. The current trade can be a tricky one for new traders. Your stock trades lower today, but the stock price currently sits in obvious bullish order flow.
So what do you do? What is the correct trade?
I went through this in both 2003 and 2008. Solid selling order flow dominated the stock market for 18 months but then shorting the lows didn’t work any more. The transition from one type of order flow to the other is sloppy (distribution) or quiet (accumulation) which makes them both challenging.
Sometimes we don’t spot a change of trend until after the fact. If your stock is bullish, but trades lower, the smart trade calls to let it go, and have a bearish trade ready to go. Yes it’s tempting, but shorting a strong stock, will make you a loser in the long-run.
I should know, I tried it until I finally wised-up and followed the order flow.
Apple Earnings: iPhone 7 Plus Could Save the Day
Can Apple come out of its recent earnings doldrums through higher prices for iPhones? WSJ’s Tripp Mickle explains on Lunch Break with Tanya Rivero.
Apple’s earnings to miss Wall Street expectations on weak iPhone demand, JPMorgan says
JPMorgan predicted Apple’s December quarter financial results and March quarter guidance will come in under Wall Street estimates due to lackluster iPhone sales.
“We believe guidance for FQ2 [fiscal second quarter]… is likely to be lower than many expect on weaker iPhone unit volume …
Apple: Never Mind Q2, iPhone ‘X’ is a ‘Powder Keg,’ Says Cowen
In contrast to some warnings today about Apple’s (AAPL) fiscal Q2 outlook, which is expected to be offered along with Q1 results after the closing bell,
Cowen & Co.’s Timothy Arcuri today writes that the “March guide will be fine,” and that the focus of investors, anyway, is already turning to the introduction of what is is supposed to be an “iPhone 10/X,” also known as the iPhone 8, at times, which most expect will be introduced this fall, as the 10th anniversary iPhone.
Stocks to Trade 1-31-17 | Tuesday Edition
Short-Term Trading Momentum:
Bullish Momentum: ACAD
Bearish Momentum: rrc, mur, ctsh, dal, nfx, cop, clr, apa, dvn, stld
Quarterly Order Flow:
Bullish Stocks to Trade: SWKS, STX, HD, ADBE, WDC, NSC, ADSK, IBM, NFLX, BABA, PNC, LYB, CLVS, UNP, AVGO, BA, CAT
Bearish Stocks to Trade: oxy, fslr, mnk, qcom, amt, xom, aet, acn, lb, tjx, gild, tgt, dltr, kss, bmy, jwn
2x Normal Volume: AAL, CL, MUR
Inside days: ebay, bsx, wmt, cl, cvs, jnpr, m, tgt, wba, foxa, kr, wdc, amgn, bby, kss, adi, jwn, cah