Stock Traders Seek Conviction After Inside Day 3-8-16

Inside days are interesting, nothing happened but they set up powerful moves.

spy insideThis chart pattern is a must scan every day (see the bottom of this post). Too often our trading eyes search for big red or green candlesticks. Yes, that’s where the money is but that’s after-the-fact.

We want those trading set ups before they explode.

Some veteran stock traders make a case there are only two market cycles you need to know. Contraction and volatility. It’s said that one always leads to the other. Is it really that simple?

Yes. Yes it is.

Don’t believe me? Look back at your trading losses and determine how much money you threw away because your stock was in a range. In my 22 years of trading, this mistake is one of the biggest reasons traders don’t get paid.

We muck it up with fancy indicators. The truth is your stocks are either moving or they aren’t. Volatility is expanding or it’s not. Inside days, weeks and months, lead to momentum and trends.

The key to this trading pattern is dropping your directional bias. Let the breakout tip its hand. Let the big money show you the direction, then hop on board.

If you need some help leave a comment below…

Pete

Trading Podcast Downloads

Pete’s  Day Trading Notes:

  • Oil and gas stocks, wow.
  • $FB still struggling to get over $110.
  • “Popular” stocks not participating.

Oil edges lower after Kuwait dents hopes for output freeze

Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday after Kuwait said it would only agree to an output freeze if all major producers take part and Goldman Sachs analysts poured cold water over the prospects for a sustained rally.

Brent crude futures LOCc1 were down 12 cents at $40.72 a barrel at 0922 GMT, hovering above the $40 mark it last traded at three months ago. On Monday the contract had climbed by 5.5 percent in intra-day trading and it has gained about 50 percent since Jan. 20.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were down 10 cents at $37.80 a barrel.

“Prices are lower on the Goldman Sachs and Kuwaiti comments and the oil market remains oversupplied,” said Tamas Varga, oil analyst at PVM in London.

Kuwait’s oil minister said on Tuesday that his country’s participation in an output freeze would require all major oil producers, including Iran, to be on board.

“I’ll go full power if there’s no agreement. Every barrel I produce I’ll sell,” Anas al-Saleh told reporters in Kuwait City.

OPEC member Kuwait is currently producing 3 million barrels of oil per day, he added.

On Monday the Ecuadorean government said that Latin American oil producers would meet on Friday to coordinate a strategy to halt the crude price rout.

Tuesday’s report by Goldman Sachs said that a recent surge in commodity prices was premature and unsustainable.

Continue reading on reuters.com

Stock Market Today: Map of the S&P 500

(click the map for a full view)

S&P 500 heatmap 3-8-16

S&P 500 Heatmap 3-8-16

Stock Traders Seek Conviction After Inside Day 3-8-16

S&P 500 Futures Signal Lower Open After Stocks’ Three-Week Bull Market Rally

U.S. stock-index futures signaled equities will fall from a two-month high as investors assessed Chinese growth prospects.

S&P 500 Index contracts dropped 0.4 percent to 1,987 at 6:39 a.m. in New York. Equities rose for a fourth day Friday, the longest rally since October, as investors shrugged off disappointing wage growth data to focus on a surge in hiring as proof the world’s biggest economy is strengthening. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures retreated 47 points, or 0.3 percent, to 16,920, today.

“What we have seen in the markets last week was nothing more than a dead cat bounce,” said Daniel Weston, chief investment officer of Aimed Capital in Munich. “For now, we don’t see signals of improvement in our expectations of growth or inflation moving forward around the developed world. So it’s hard for stocks to hold gains without much fundamentals.”

Continue reading on bloomberg.com

Chart Reading the SPY ETF

$SPY inside day with a positive close left little clues. Day trading mode with a bullish edge. No swings here.

(click the chart for a full view)

$SPY Chart 3-8-16

$SPY Chart 3-8-16

Technical Analysis | Charts of Interest

$V on finviz.com

Visa met massive selling yesterday. Both the 50 and 200 sma at the $73.25 level. $66 is the target for a short-sale.

Visa‘s Struggle With Heavy Overhead Resistance Continues

Shares of Visa (V – Get Report) are beginning to show signs of a deep pullback ahead. Major overhead resistance near the $75 area appears to have zapped all of the stock’s upside momentum. With today’s trend line break, and a fall below last week’s low, lower prices are on the way.

For patient Visa investors, it may prove wise to remain on the sidelines in the near term. Lower-risk entry opportunities may develop later this week.

A few days after Visa’s huge breakdown gap on Jan. 4, the stock fell below its December low. A week later, Visa managed a slight bounce but was held in check by the December low. The fresh down leg that followed confirmed the area near $75.50 as a heavy resistance zone.

Rallies off the late January low and early February low failed just below this area. With Visa taking out the lower trend line of its four-week bull channel today, the $75.50-to-$74.60 area has developed into a major resistance zone. The pullback from this area could be quite deep before it runs its course.

(click the chart for a full view)

stock market today

$V Chart 3-8-16

Stocks to Trade 3-8-16

Short-Term Trading Momentum:

Positive the last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% higher from the open: MUR, PAA, ETP, APA, EOG, XON, OKE, RRC, URI, KSS, ADSK, MBLY, CVX, CXO, CMI, STX, BMY, LYB, CAT, XOM, KMX, TSLA, PSX, ETN, SLB, IBM, HP, TIF, TMO, JWN, DNKN

Negative last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% lower from the open: fb, nke, lnkd, 

Quarterly Order Flow:

Bullish Stocks to Trade: APA, IONS, ADSK, CVX, BMY, CAT, XOM, DD, PSX, ETN, SLB, HP, CAM ,EIX, CBS, TSN, HCN, DE, UPS, VTR, CAH, KORS, MMM, JNJ, YUM, TJX, AMT, TGT, FSLR, HON KMB, CHRW, WYNN, LVS, DNKN

Bearish Stocks to Trade: ctrp, rh, fl, myl, endp, vrx

2x Normal Volume: NOV, MUR, RIO, SM, MPLX, HRB, TOT, PE

Inside days: kr, dow, ko, apc, clr, hrb, scty, wy, pg, pep, vlo, ebay, tgt, swks, de, coh, aem, mbly, kmx, ip, m, bidu

About the Author

Leave a Reply 0 comments

Leave a Reply: