Stock Traders Need Structure to Succeed

Day Traders Seeking Volatility after SPY Inside DayStock traders are in need of some aspirin…

We are experiencing a shift in how to earn a living as a trader. The pieces are moving but too many traders are not adapting. I have witnessed this multiple times, you shouldn’t begin believing you are unlucky to start now. When stock quotes changed from fractions to decimals we felt the same way.

But eventually adapted, and thrived.

You need to see things the same way to succeed at trading, especially if you’re a day trader. The market is not going to adapt to you. Pay attention to the leaks in your trading, figure out where you can make little changes. Make one at a time, don’t make them drastic, all-at-once type of changes.

Mark Douglas said it best in his ground-breaking book Trading in the Zone. Stock traders need structure to succeed in a random environment.

Trading success comes from your definite plan, not from the market. I have outlasted thousands of traders because I paid attention and adapted. My core philosophy of tracking order flow and momentum will never change, how I interact and manage trades does.

If you need some help leave a comment below…

Pete

Trading Podcast Downloads

Pete’s  Day Trading Notes:

  • Yesterday’s reversal was frustrating. I get it, but pick yourself up and get back on track.
  • Healthcare took a hit again yesterday.
  • Basic materials still in the tracking journal for longs.

Stock Market Today: Map of the S&P 500

(click the map for a full view)

spy map 1

Stock Traders Need Structure to Succeed with Random Action 3-1-16

Chart Reading the SPY ETF

$SPY reversal was unexpected. All signs at that moment were pointing to a bullish day of trading but the bottom fell out. You can’t complain, you need to adapt. Today’s higher open makes it even more baffling. I feel your frustration.

(click the chart for a full view)

spy chart 1

Technical Analysis | Charts of Interest

$CF on finviz.com

The fundamentals in $CF have not changed but the price action certainly has. Closing above the 50 sma on the daily chart is the first confirmation of a change of trend to bullish.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. breached its 50 day moving average in a Bullish Manner : CF-US : February 29, 2016

Compared to peers, relative underperformance over the last year is in contrast with the more recent outperformance.

CF-US‘s share price performance of -43.01% over the last 12 months is below its peer median but its 30-day trend in share price performance of 18.51% is better than the peer median. This recent rising stock price may herald a change in relative share price performance.

CF Industries’ Market Outlook for 2016

During the company’s 4Q15 conference call, CF Industries Holdings (CF) stated that the operating rates for Chinese urea producers had dropped to 66% in January 2016 from 73% in December 2015.

However, the management stated that Chinese producers got a lift from China’s devaluation of the yuan, from declining coal prices, and from the softening transportation costs caused by a weakness in the ocean freight. These situations have not reversed but have made the marginal coal-based Chinese producers more competitive, thus continuing to put downward pressure on urea prices in 2016.

(click the chart for a full view)

cf

Stocks to Trade 3-1-16

Short-Term Trading Momentum:

Positive the last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% higher from the open: AMBA, TRGP, CF, OKE, FEYE, HFC, MBLY, FSLR, SFM, LULU, WRK

Negative last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% lower from the open: endp, vrx, ar, myl, eog, sti, amgn, cma, pnc, zts, apa, bhi, fl, abbv, teva, wfc, cxo, eqt

Quarterly Order Flow:

Bullish Stocks to Trade: FSLR, LULU, EIX, UAL, DAL, LVS, AVGO, WYNN, SNDK, DHR, MDT, KORS, TGT, PM, JNJ, TSN, KMB, MMM, DD, GPN, EW, TJX

Bearish Stocks to Trade: endp, vrx, ar, myl, eog, amgn, pnc, lnkd, fl, lly, gild, nbl, rrc, gpor, gs, car

2x Normal Volume: VRX, PYPL, ENDP, NFX, TRGP, SNDK, FL, EGN, ROST, WDAY

Inside days: c, schw, trgp, utx, rrc, met, sbux, mpc, tsm, gps, aal, cvs, rau, rai, ntap, ccl, m, stx, aep, panw, adbe, cost, tol, aem, adt, wynn, kmx, k, pcar,

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