Stock Market Visits Nosebleed Seats 3-17-16

Every day in the mentor room I repeat “buying is the right play right now. Don’t short weak stocks.”

Today and most likely tomorrow, you will be faced with this mental battle. I believe we are about to see an overdue decline/profit-taking type of price action.

Be disciplined. If you choose to be short a strong stock, trade it with less shares. To be a successful trader, we need to take trades that “work” most of the time.  If you can’t find a good long, there is nothing wrong with being in cash.

If that bothers you, ask yourself why you didn’t earn more during a six week rally!

If you need some help leave a comment below…


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Pete’s  Day Trading Notes:

  • As I said yesterday, too many people on one side of the market… look for a top here.
  • Financials ready for a momentum move after multi-week consolidation.
  • Would not be shocked if we get two solid down trend days.

Oil rallies to $41, near 2016 high, on producer meeting

Oil rose above $41 a barrel on Thursday, trading close to a 2016 high, bolstered by a plan among some of the world’s biggest producers to meet next month to discuss supporting the market.

OPEC and non-OPEC producers including the top two exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia, will meet on April 17 in Qatar over a plan to freeze output, increasing the likelihood of the first global supply deal in 15 years.

Brent crude LCOc1 was up 81 cents at $41.14 a barrel by 1009 GMT. It has rallied over 50 percent from a 12-year low of $27.10 in January and is close to its 2016 peak of $41.48 reached on March 8.

U.S. crude CLc1 was up 92 cents at $39.38 a barrel.

“For now, the market is staying well supported, and the dollar is proving additional support,” said Olivier Jakob, oil analyst at Petromatrix. “It will be difficult to return to the lows of the year.”

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Stock Market Today: Map of the S&P 500

(click the map for a full view)

spy heatmap

Stock Market Visits Nosebleed Seats 3-17-16

Gold Sees Solid Gains In Aftermath of Dovish FOMC Statement

(Kitco News) – Gold prices were solidly higher in afternoon trading Wednesday, getting a good boost following a dovish FOMC statement. Gold prices were trading near steady just before the statement’s release at 2:00 p.m. Eastern time. April Comex gold is now up $15.80 at $1,246.70 an ounce. May Comex silver was last up $0.189 at $15.45 an ounce.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that began Tuesday and ended early Wednesday afternoon saw its statement downgrade U.S. economic growth and inflation expectations, and suggested the Fed would only raise interest rates twice this year—instead of the three or four times that some Fed watchers had expected. As of this writing the marketplace was awaited a press conference from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

U.S. stock indexes rallied modestly on the FOMC statement, while U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes prices moved to near the session highs but were just modestly higher on the day. The U.S. dollar index sold off sharply following the FOMC statement.

In other U.S. economic news Wednesday, the U.S. consumer price index core rate in February rose 2.3%, year-on-year, which is the biggest jump since 2012. However, the overall CPI was down 0.2% in the same period. New residential construction data in February was also reported Wednesday and it was upbeat.

The precious metals markets showed no significant or lasting reactions to the reports.

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Chart Reading the SPY ETF

$SPY showing 6 consecutive weeks of buying. Low probability to continue. Yesterday’s FED policy statement should be a short-term top.

(click the chart for a full view)

spy chart 17

Technical Analysis | Charts of Interest

$INCY on

Incyte Genomics Incorporated (NASDAQ:INCY) Sellers Increased By 24.6% Their Shorts 

The stock of Incyte Genomics Incorporated (NASDAQ:INCY) registered an increase of 24.6% in short interest. INCY’s total short interest was 6.88M shares in March as published by FINRA. Its up 24.6% from 5.52M shares, reported previously.

With 1.81 million shares average volume, it will take short sellers 4 days to cover their INCY’s short positions. The short interest to Incyte Genomics Incorporated’s float is 4.21%. The stock decreased 4.84% or $3.34 during the last trading session, hitting $65.64. About 2.66M shares traded hands. Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ:INCY) has declined 36.85% since August 10, 2015 and is downtrending.

It has underperformed by 34.06% the S&P500.

$INCY relative weakness with room to go short-sale target $54.93

(click the chart for a full view)


Stocks to Trade 3-17-16

Short-Term Trading Momentum:

Positive the last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% higher from the open: SM, MBLY, CRZO, DVN, EGN, CLR, MPLX, AEM, COP, MPC, CTRP, URI, APC, EQT, HES, LVS, CAT, LYB, LVLT, AKAM, SWKS, CRM, BABA, BIDU

Negative last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% lower from the open: incy, teva, agn, vrtx, mnk

Quarterly Order Flow:


Bearish Stocks to Trade: mnk, vrtx, agn, incy, shpg, vrx, fl, lly, car, endp

2x Normal Volume: GDX, ENDP, HDS, VRX, SHPG, HZNP, AGN, MNK

Inside days: ge, wmt, jnj, mgm, abbv, low, myl, cvs, amzn, yum, kss, aet, anf, cb

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