Stock Market Treads Lightly Before FOMC Today 3-16-16

The stock market doesn’t need a jolt, the bias is clearly up.

All things trading related are rosy if you are a bull. Buy the dips are back in vogue.

But what does your trading plan say about today? Or to be clear, what does your trading plan say about trading a news catalyst in general? Do you trade fast moving price action caused by news or do you sit aside then wait for a technical setup?

The answer is not so cut and dry.

  • You need to be able to make fast decisions.
  • You need to be fast on the keys to place orders.
  • You need to adapt to wider swings for your stop-loss.
  • You need to adjust your share size.

Trading a news catalyst is a different strategy from pure chart reading.

Be honest if you have the skills and resources. There is nothing wrong with not trading news…when it’s announced. If you’re a newer trader or don’t have the education to interpret the news, stay in cash then trade the technical set up.

If you need some help leave a comment below…


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Pete’s  Day Trading Notes:

  • Stocks in the S&P 500 bright green for performance the last 30 days. Too many people on one side of the boat?
  • Healthcare stocks took a hit yesterday, drug manufacturers such as $VRX got pounded.
  • Be patient heading into the FOMC today, you need to know your volume today. If you’re stocks are on par with good volume, jump in, if you see a bunch of doji candlesticks in multiple time-frames, cash is the right play.

U.S. stock futures inch higher, with market in holding pattern ahead of Fed

U.S. stock futures on Wednesday pointed to a slightly higher open, as investors braced for a key Federal Reserve policy statement due in the afternoon.

Ahead of the opening bell, they are expected to digest reports on consumer prices, housing starts and industrial production.

S&P 500 futures ESH6, +0.05% rose by 2.85 points, or 0.1%, to 2,009.25, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures YMH6, +0.06% tacked on 26 points, or 0.2%, to 17,174. Nasdaq 100 futures NQH6, +0.11% added 9.25 points, or 0.2%, to 4,365.50.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.18% closed 0.2% lower, retreating for a second straight day, while the Dow DJIA, +0.13% gained 0.1%, or 22 points. The 30-stock Dow, which has risen for three sessions in a row, got a big lift on Tuesday from Apple Inc.’s AAPL, +2.01% 2% gain following an upbeat Morgan Stanley take on iPhone demand.

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Stock Market Today: Map of the S&P 500

(click the map for a full view)

Stock Market Treads Lightly Before FOMC Today

Stock Market Treads Lightly Before FOMC Today 3-16-16

Fed Rates Seen On Hold; But Yellen May Signal June Gloom

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, but policymakers may signal fresh monetary action in the next few months, perhaps in June.

The Fed will issue its policy statement at 2 p.m. ET, along with new economic forecasts. Fed Chairwoman will hold a news conference at 2:30 p.m.

The central bank raised rates for the first time in nearly a decade in December. But financial market turmoil, perhaps partially fueled by that December move, along with weaker economic data spurred policymakers to hold off on further tightening at its Jan. 26-27 meeting, noting in the post-meeting statement that they were “closely monitoring global economic and financial developments.”

But global stock markets and oil prices have steadied, while U.S. economic data generally have been more favorable, though retail sales data Tuesday were weak.

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Chart Reading the SPY ETF

$SPY weekly candlestick forming a doji, obvious indecision heading into FOMC today. Thursday and Friday should be good days to trade. Be patient and don’t over trade until the picture clears up.

(click the chart for a full view)

Stock Market Treads Lightly Before FOMC Today

Technical Analysis | Charts of Interest

$ALL on

Allstate | Nice breakout with volume, profit target $69.08

(click the chart for a full view)


Stocks to Trade 3-16-16

Short-Term Trading Momentum:

Positive the last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% higher from the open: EGN, CXO, HES, HP, EA, ALL, APC, AEM, COG, SKX, EQT, SM, MPLX, RRC, TEX

Negative last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% lower from the open: vrx, endp, mnk, hznp, cyh, incy, vrtx

Quarterly Order Flow:


Bearish Stocks to Trade: vrx, endp, mnk, incy, lly, vrtx, cern, celg, rh,

2x Normal Volume: VRX, ENDP, LLY, SNDK, MJN, MNK, DDD, HDS, TEX

Inside days: vz, pg, luv, mo, clr, pypl, dal, dhi, rai, mar, mur, ba, wfm, twx, adbe, xlnx, expe, trip, cms, hig, jci, ups, rh, uri, fslr

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