The stock market is “well-bid” for four consecutive weeks, this type of buying is difficult to maintain.
Expect a pause or a decline this week.
A bullish stock market, without a meaningful decline is a good thing for retail investors and the talking heads. For traders it can be like musical chairs, you don’t want to be left long without institutional support. It’s tough to keep getting long every day.
We have not witnessed capitulation or a parabolic move. This is frustrating the bears and many day traders.
The correct trade is to be a buyer, the best trades are when your stock is above the open price. The $SPY closed above the 200sma, a level many traders and investor monitor.
Today and this week, are setting up to be a consolidation, until the FOMC announces. Keep an eye on the volume during the pause, it will give us a clue to next move.
Heavy volume implies a decline and distribution. Light volume implies we rally into the $208 in the $SPY.
If you need some help leave a comment below…
Pete’s Day Trading Notes:
- $SPY close above the 200SMA is significant.
- The stock market appears to be leaning to one side (up) a good time to sell into strength, not initiate new longs for a swing trade.
U.S. stock futures waver as Fed meeting keeps investors on hold
Wall Street was set for a choppy session on Monday, with stock futures swinging in and out of losses as investors stayed cautious ahead of the closely watched Federal Reserve meeting this week.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average YMH6, -0.06% slipped 6 points, or less than 0.1%, to 17,085, while those for the S&P 500 index ESH6, -0.17% fell 2.75 points, or 0.1%, to 2,007.75. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index NQH6, -0.09% gave up 3 points, or 0.1%, to 4,341.75.
The slight pullbacks came after the S&P 500 index SPX, +1.64% and Dow average DJIA, +1.28% rallied on Friday. They closed at their highest levels in 2016 on the back of a rebound in oil prices.
However, the stock markets struggled to keep up the upbeat mood on Monday as oil prices declined and investors refrained from making any big moves before the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday.
Fed ahead: The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold, even as recent economic data support the case for a rate hike in the short term, analysts at Daiwa Capital Markets said. The Fed’s two-day meeting starts Tuesday.
Stock Market Today: Map of the S&P 500
(click the map for a full view)
Stock Market Seeking FOMC Clarity This Week 3-14-16
Housing, Crude, FOMC, Inflation Data: Big Wednesday Ahead for Markets
Wednesday, March 16, will see four sets of crucial data hitting Wall Street all at the same time. Although it may not be apparent now, all four are intimately connected and interdependent, and what we see on Wednesday could help determine trends in commodities and bond markets particularly.
— Min Zeng (@minzengwsj) March 13, 2016
Chart Reading the SPY ETF
$SPY close above the 200 sma is cause to celebrate but we don’t have room-to-go. The gap fill from 12-31-15 looms as resistance and the FOMC is in the background. Expect to be stock specific this week, or at least until after Wednesday.
(click the chart for a full view)
Technical Analysis | Charts of Interest
$EXPE on finviz.com
Expedia closed above the short-term resistance of $112.44 but has the 200 sma just above. A pause for a couple of days sets up a solid trade to the next profit target of $127.63.Friday’s trading range and strong close was awesome but it’s not the time to buy. Let it consolidate above the breakout near the 200 sma.
Is It Time to Buy Expedia?
Shares of Expedia (EXPE – Get Report) opened today’s session (3-10-16) with a powerful upside gap. This upgrade-inspired ramp drove shares to fresh March highs with the help of a 5% gain.
Expedia has fallen from the early highs but remains above key support. For bullish Expedia investors, this fade has dropped the stock back down to a low-risk entry zone.
Following the ugly breakdown gap that opened January, Expedia entered a full on breakdown phase. The stock sliced through multiple layers of support as it dropped over 27% before bottoming in early February. Expedia reached a deeply oversold reading in its daily moving average convergence/divergence indicator at last month’s low. The stock was set up well for a healthy recovery, and after reaching $88.50, the Expedia quickly reversed to the upside.
A little over week later, the stock had recovered two-thirds of the January breakdown.
(click the chart for a full view)
Stocks to Trade 3-14-16
Short-Term Trading Momentum:
Positive the last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% higher from the open: DVN, CRZO, APC, EGN, HES, CF, APA, CLR, PCD, EXPE, LNC, NBL, CNC, PANW, VTR, NOW, PRU, EOG, AMT, MBLY, BIDU, ABC, HCA, MPC, CTRP, MCK, ABBV, UNH, WYNN
Negative last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% lower from the open:
Quarterly Order Flow:
Bullish Stocks to Trade: PCD, VTR, AMT, BIDU, AVGO, CBS, UNH, ADP, WYNN, AET, HP, DG, LVLT, HD, ACN, LOW, CB, KORS, LVS, LULU, CHRW, YUM, MCD, LRCX, YUM, PSX, KMB, UPS, DE CVX, HON, TGT, NEE, TJX, AEM
Bearish Stocks to Trade: celg, incy, rh, endp, vrx
2x Normal Volume: VTR, X
Inside days: csco, jpm, nflx, ebay, emc, nem, wmt, celg, bmy, dis, myl, gps, wfm, cvs, crm, tsla, scty, adbe, rax, cern, dd, bbby, cost, gme, fl, nee, anf, incy, dish, grub