Today will be a sign-post type day in the stock market…
If we can withstand the FB disappointment, Q2 GDP report today, jobless claims and the FOMC this week with continued buying, the bulls may have finally broke the remaining bears.
There are so many “ifs” in this tape right now it’s hard to be anything but stock specific. For the better pat of this year we have traded back and forth in a trading range with no direction lasting more than a few days in the indices. Expect that to continue until the SPY clears $212 or 205 with volume.
July 30 Stock Market Today: Map of the S&P 500
(click the map for a full view)
The SPY is set to open neutral today which is pretty good after the Facebook earnings yesterday. The Spy closing price is back above both the 20ema and the 50 sma but don’t read too much into that because they are both sideways. No slope means no bias.
(click the chart for a full view)
Stocks to Trade | Thursday July 30, 2015
- If the market opens flat and trades higher despite FB after-hours hit on earnings that would be impressive.
- Oil and gas stocks showing some buying this week.
AMGN didn’t have much for traders to get excited about until this week when it closed in on 52 weeks highs. The stock had a mirror image of the major stock market averages, which means no obvious order flow bit something to keep on your radar now at these levels. When a stock has no trend prior to the breakout you want to wait for confirmation. I would wait to see a couple of days closes above $172.
(click the chart for a full view)
Earnings in play today > 1M avg shares: COP, PG, CTRX, TEVA, POT, VLO, MPC, FEYE, OXY, AMGN, CL, TMUS, BRCM, CI, CAH, ADP, EA, SWK, HOT, ALXN, LNKD, AZN, CME, KLAC, EXPE, BUD, TWC, SBH
Bullish Ideas ATR/Volume/Price: FIT, AMZN, GOOGL, GOOG, TEVA, UA, TSO, GPRO, NFLX, CELG, WBA, FB, AGN, MBLY, CVS, TWC, NKE, CRM, ACN, HD>118, MA, HCA
Bearish Ideas ATR/Volume/Price: yelp, uri, apa, bidu, rrc, twtr, cat, pxd, cvx, mmm, baba, mon
Weak Stock Weak Close: adsk, dd, ip, twtr, pot
Strong Stock Weak Close: DEPO, CELG, FIT, ASRX
Weak Stock Strong Close: wll, joy, mro, clr, atw, nbl, dvn, nov, bhp, kors, oi, se, pxd,
Strong Stock Strong Close: HIG, EBAY, MAS, V, VLO, CVS, KKR, DHR, NKE, AIG, MA, HON, HCA, MET,
20 day Breakdown: ip, rrc, pot, twtr
20 Day Breakout: F, PFE, MA, DHI, P, MAS, ALLY, RAI, UPS, CL, ADT, AFL, SCTY, WM
2x Normal Volume: twtr, cfg, fb, pfe, yelp, x, gild, hlt, dtv, myl, utx, rrc, dhi, utx, cat, ma, rrc, dhi, gsk, bidu, gt, apc, etn, ip, grub, tyc, hes, ncr, adt
Watch List Longs: AMGN, VLO, CVS, TWC, SBUX, HD, BK, ABT, WFC, JPM, EBAY, C, INTU,
Watch List Short: cop, cof, cvx, axp, kss, slb, bby, dd, lltc, klac, dow, ntap,
Inside days: intc, cat, emc, ms, cog, hpq, ko, bidu, aal, txn, nflx, dd, dfs, m, luv, amgn, ual, bby, hig, gpro, amzn, abt, symc, fit, adi, lltc, adbe, mmm, gps, tso, mxim, urbn
Q2 GDP Report Today | Trading Game Plan July 30
U.S. stock futures dip into the red ahead of GDP report
Wall Street was set to open slightly lower on Thursday, with stock futures dipping into the red ahead of closely watched second-quarter growth data that could impact the timing of the first Federal Reserve rate hike.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average YMU5, -0.01% slipped 33 points, or 0.2%, to 17,649, while those for the S&P 500 index ESU5, -0.01% fell 4.50 points, or 0.2%, to 2,097. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index NQU5, +0.13% lost 4.25 points, or 0.1%, to 4,560.75.
GDP data: The key event on Thursday is the release of second-quarter gross domestic product data due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Economists polled by MarketWatch forecast the economy grew by 2.8% in the quarter, staging a rebound after a 0.2% contraction in the first three months of the year.
“Today’s 2Q GDP update will weigh heavily on whether the Fed hikes in September or if it will again delay,” said John Kicklighter, chief strategist at DailyFX, in a note.
The Fed on Wednesday kept rates on hold as expected, but hinted strongly that it’s ready to start tightening monetary policy in the fall, depending on improvement in incoming data.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday after the Fed decision, although action was choppy immediately after the release of the report. The dollar rose on the expectations of a 2015 rate hike, with the ICE dollar index DXY, +0.18% continuing its ascent on Thursday as well.
Also on the lineup are weekly jobless claims, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Forecasts are for a climb to 275,000 in the week ended July 25, up from 255,000 in the week before, which was the lowest level since November 1973.
Continue reading on marketwatch.com
Second-quarter GDP seen rebounding on consumer spending, housing
U.S. economic growth likely accelerated in the second quarter as a pick-up in consumer spending and housing offset the drag from trade and the energy sector, suggesting a steady momentum that could bring the Federal Reserve closer to hiking interest rates this year.
The government is expected to report on Thursday that gross domestic product increased at a 2.6 percent annual rate, according to a Reuters survey of economists.
There is, however, a lot of uncertainty regarding this estimate after the government took steps to refine the seasonal adjustment for some components of GDP, which economists said left residual seasonality in the data. This means first-quarter GDP, previously reported to have shrunk at a 0.2 percent pace, could be revised higher because of new source data.
“We expect a decent bounce back, which will suggest that the economy’s struggles at the start of the year were temporary,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “GDP growth north of 2.5 percent is sufficient to reduce the slack in the broader economy.”
The Commerce Department will publish its GDP report at 8:30 a.m.
The Fed on Wednesday described the economy as expanding “moderately” while upgrading its view of the labor market and saying housing had shown “additional” improvement. The Fed’s assessment left the door open for a possible hike in interest rates in September, which would be the first rise since 2006.
Continue reading on reuters.com