Traders need perspective, or maybe I am crazy, but I don’t think so because a lot of people smarter than me feel the same.
How in the world did the stock market get put on hold over a potential .25 interest rate hike?
Please, get it over already. Today’s nonfarm payrolls should give us a pre-market catalyst. We are set for a higher open after yesterday’s beat-down. If the SPY is trading below the open by 10:15 am, look for another strong day of selling.
Stock Market Today: Map of the S&P 500
(click the map for a full view)
The $SPY is solidly stuck between $202 and 211.50. The 50 sma support is in the $204 area. Last week I said we will stay in this range for the remainder of 2015. I see no reason to game plan otherwise…unless we get the rate hike.
Still in day trade mode.
(click the chart for a full view)
- SPY finally gave us a +150 million share trend day.
- I don’t see much reason to be building long-term positions. Day trade or hold 1-3 days right now. Too much indecision
Charts in Focus
CAR showing continuation patterns to the downside and broke long-term support. Solid room-to-go profit potential on a short-sale down to $27.50
(click the chart for a full view)
Nonfarm Payrolls 12-4-15 | Stocks to Trade
Relative strength yesterday compared to the SPY negative change from the open: QUNR, SCTY, GMCR
> 20sma | positive week | closed 2% higher from the open: QUNR, SCTY, GMCR
<20sma, negative last 5 days and closed 2% lower from the open: urbn, paa, wmb, gpro, dvn, aet, pcar, mar, hot, oxy, lvs, biib, apa, coh, tmus, thc, gme, ua, mur, fl, gild, abbv, gs, feye, pypl, etp, rrc, lng, dks, car, akam, tso, stx, cat, cop, slb, apc,
Bullish Ideas ATR/Volume/Price: AVGO, QUNR, NSC, ADSK, CTRP, WTW, GOOGL, AMZN, NFLX, BIDU, HD
Bearish Ideas ATR/Volume/Price: xon, dvn, aet, mar, hot, mbly, unp, biib, apa, thc, gme, ua, gild, abbv, cmi, etp, rrc, lng, car, akam, cat, cop, cvs, prgo, slb, apc, lulu, m, cf,
Weak Stock Weak Close: xon, urbn, paa, wmb, pcar, bkd, hot, mbly, ctsh, lvs, unp, biib, usg, apa, coh, tmus, thc, gme, ua, mur, gild, abbv, antm, feye, pypl, adm, etp, rrc, car, akam, stx, cat, apc,
Strong Stock Weak Close: PBF, INFN, TER, MAS, DHI, ATVI, ETFC, BIDU, MSFT, NFLX, IDTI, CTRP
Weak Stock Strong Close:
Strong Stock Strong Close: QUNR, KR
20 day Breakdown: paa, wmb, dvn, pcar, mar, hot, axy, mbly, ctsh, ccl, unp, unp, rcl, gme, ua, mur, gild, sbux, gs, etp, lng, akam, hes, d, hog, apc, cam, mmm, oke, utx, nfx, eog
20 Day Breakout: CSIQ, TSN, QUNR, SCTY,
2x Normal Volume: TEVA, DYAX, BRCM, AVGO, UNP, DVN, BBY, TSN, DG, MPC, SCTY, AET, PCAR, URBN, CMI, AMBA, AFL, JWN
Watch List Longs: HD, COST, MCD, KO, BRCM, LOW, MSFT, LUV
Watch List Short: adm, bby, cop, aet, slb, cvs, axp, m, lvs, akam, ntap, ual, orcl, csco,
Inside days: teva, mos, nsc, rax, yelp, stwd
This last jobs hurdle could trip up markets
Everyone’s been describing today’s jobs report as the “last hurdle” before a rate hike.
But now some folks seem to be worrying that it could be more like running into a wall.
The mood is suddenly a bit grimmer as we race toward the nonfarm-payrolls report, thanks to Super Mario turning all Grinch yesterday. The ECB chief handed the dollar its biggest drop against the euro EURUSD, -0.4022% in six years, and the S&P SPX, -1.44% its largest loss in two months.
“Could NFPs disappoint like ECB?” asks BK Asset Management’s Kathy Lien in a note.
Wolf Richter over at Wolf Street is particularly gloomy.
“And this, after seven years of muscular central-bank market interventions and manipulations around the globe, is what ‘investing’ has come down to: betting on the words of a few god-like central bankers, running in a solid herd behind central-bank hype … and profiting from the run-up of even the crappiest stocks and bonds to ludicrous heights,” Richter says in a blog post.
“But it’s not working anymore. Something broke. … And that, if you’re betting on central banks, should put you in a pensive mood.”
In other words, beware the crowded central-bank trade that was supposed to be so easy. “Traders will almost certainly think twice about holding a strong consensus position into a major announcement from here,” says IG’s chief market strategist, Chris Weston, in a note.
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