How to Trade this Feast or Famine Stock Market

Stock trading is a great business if you keep everything in perspective.

The key word is business. There are very few businesses on the planet that are “busy” all the time. Yet for some reason stock traders have a hard time waiting for “customers.”

“Pete, you don’t understand…I have to pay my bills. I need to make money….”

Trust me, I understand. I’ve made every mistake in the book, including over trading. Making bad trades because you need to make money is throwing away your inventory.

You are literally making it harder to make money. 

Our goal is to define an edge and then trade it flawlessly. We fall of the rails when we make trades outside our edge. You are not only reducing your odds, but extending the time it will take you to be profitable.

Strive to lose money on your best ideas. Be patient or be broke.

algorithmic trading

algorithmic trading

We have a huge advantage these days because of algorithmic trading. When the algos pick a direction, the momentum is often violent and consistently in one direction.

Some traders complain about the algos. Not me. I am patient to pick my spots and then wait to hop on for the ride.

Everything is fast these days, especially information. We don’t need to pay for a news service anymore, simply use a hashtag.

Be patient. We are getting paid by the month not the hour.

Leave a comment below if you need help with your strategy…


IYT 4-7-16

IYT 4-7-16

Trading Podcast Downloads

Pete’s  Day Trading Notes:

  • $AAPL continues to hold the bid. Impressive.
  • $FB hovering near all-time highs. A must to be on your daily list.
  • $WYNN is a great day trading stock. Add $TSLA to that list.
  • Pharmaceuticals and biotech in play.

Oil prices waver after supply-driven rally loses steam

Oil prices wavered in volatile trade Thursday, as investors weighed an unexpected decline in U.S. crude inventories against growing doubts that major oil producers will agree to curb their output.

Brent crude LCOM6, -0.05%  , the global oil benchmark, fell 0.2% to $39.77 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures LCOM6, -0.05%  were trading down 0.3% at $37.65 a barrel. Both benchmarks rallied more than 5% on Wednesday after the U.S. data was released.

U.S. crude-oil supplies fell by 4.9 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. The prior week, crude stockpiles stood at the highest level in more than 80 years. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected stockpiles to rise by 3.3 million barrels.

“It has been a long time since the EIA weekly U.S. crude oil stock figures have given the market something bullish to work with,” analysts at PVM brokerage said in a note to clients.

However, other numbers in the report were mostly bearish, PVM said. Gasoline stocks rose by 1.4 million barrels following six consecutive weeks of declines while inventories at the key crude delivery hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, rose 357,000 barrels last week, the EIA said. U.S. crude oil inventories remain at historically high levels for this time of year, the EIA added.

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Stock Market Today: Map of the S&P 500

(click the map for a full view)

spy map 4716

How to Trade this Feast or Famine Stock Market 4-7-16

Stocks Score Solid Gains; No Surprises In Fed Minutes

The stock market turned in a solid performance Wednesday, as the release of the minutes from the March 16 Federal Reserve meeting didn’t do much to alter an overall bullish tone.

At the close, the Nasdaq was up 1.6%, the S&P 500 added 1.1%, and the Dow Jones industrial average picked up 0.6%. Preliminary data showed volume on the NYSE coming in slightly lower than Tuesday’s level. Nasdaq volume rose a bit.

At the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for May delivery jumped $1.86, or 5.2%, to $37.75 a barrel after the U.S. government reported an unexpected drop in crude inventories.

Biotechs did the heavy lifting in the Nasdaq. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) outperformed, rising 6%. Regeneron (REGN) and Biogen (BIIB) were among the best performers in the Nasdaq 100, up 6% and 5% respectively.

In a nutshell, the Fed minutes showed that sentiment was running against a rate hike later this month. CME Group FedWatch currently has the odds of a rate hike at 3%. The 10-year Treasury yield added 3 basis points to 1.75%.

In the stock market today, fast-growing homebuilder LGI Homes (LGIH) jumped nearly 13% in strong trade. It cleared resistance around 25 as it worked on the right side of a possible base. Late Tuesday, the company said new-home closings surged 23.2% in March.

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Chart Reading the SPY ETF

$SPY bullish day is impressive with the help of some economic number but we are stuck between $204-206. The 2015 highs above will make it challenging to improve the returns of the last 7 weeks unless earnings season is sensational.

(click the chart for a full view)

spy 4716

Technical Analysis | Charts of Interest

$INCY on

This Deal Sent Incyte Shares Soaring 12% Today

What: Following news that it’s amending its previous collaboration agreement with Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY), Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ:INCY) shares jumped 11.62% higher today.

So what: Eli Lilly has returned rights to develop Jakafi for use in the treatment of graft versus host disease (GVHD) to Incyte, thereby allowing Incyte to license ex-U.S. rights in this indication to Novartis (NYSE:NVS).

Under the amended agreement with Eli Lilly, Incyte will pay $35 million to Eli Lilly now and may make additional payments to it upon the achievement of regulatory milestones.

At the same time, an amendment to its existing relationship with Novartis gives Novartis R&D and commercialization rights to Jakafi in this indication outside the United States. In exchange for those rights, Novartis will make payments to Incyte upon the achievement of both development and regulatory milestones. If Jakafi is commercialized outside the U.S. in the GVHD indication, Novartis will pay Incyte royalties on those ex-U.S. sales.

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(click the chart for a full view)


Stocks to Trade 4-7-16

Short-Term Trading Momentum:

Positive the last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% higher from the open: SRPT, INCY, ACAD, IONS, HZNP, VRTX, MDVN, RAX, CELG, HAL, MYL, SCTY, ETP, DVN, AMGN, KMX, OXY, TSLA, EW, NVS, X, CAH, UA, AMZN, LLY, GILD, NEM, ABBV

Negative last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% lower from the open: vlo, hog

Quarterly Order Flow:


Bearish Stocks to Trade: vrx, endp, cf, agn, de, wdc, bhi, mar, pnc, vlo, mon


Inside days: c, wba, mcd, dal, wmt, unp, d, axp, ba, ccl, hrb, aet, rai, ma, adm, tmus, etfc, de, fl, bidu, hcn, afl

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