FOMC Decision: A ‘Dovish Hike’
After the conclusion of the meeting on Wednesday, the Fed will announce a 25 basis point increase in the target range of the federal funds rate. This will lift the range to 1.00%-1.25% and will be the fourth rate increase since the Fed began with its monetary policy normalization in December 2015.
Also, such an outcome will be in line with current market expectations, whereas Bloomberg consensus survey suggests that 90% of market participants expect to see a rate increase. With the 25 basis point rate hike already priced in, market reaction in the aftermath of the meeting will depend almost solely on the Fed’s future monetary policy guidance.
Traders Ready for Dollar, Equity Volatility on FOMC Decision
We will see the market’s ingrained complacency put to the test starting today. We will start an important and volatile run of event risk this week with the champion of high profile listings: the FOMC rate decision. Before we discuss why the event is particularly complex and important this time around, we first need to appreciate the environment in which it is being released. Sentiment is set to extremely complacent.
Expected volatility for the markets at large is set in the lowest general levels the financial system has seen in decades. That inherently reflects an assumption that quiet speculative reach will persist with few interruptions through the foreseeable future. Of course, we know that is unlikely – […]
Gold Weaker As FOMC Meeting Looms
(Kitco News) – Gold prices are modestly lower in early U.S. trading Tuesday. There have been no major, fresh developments recently to give the safe-haven metal additional support. This has allowed the shorter-term futures traders to put downside pressure on the market via profit taking and the liquidation of weak long positions. August Comex gold was last down $3.50 an ounce at $1,265.50. July Comex silver was last down $0.134 at $16.81 an ounce.
Focus is on this week’s FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement. The Federal Reserve is expected by many to slightly raise U.S. interest rates. Traders and investors are also keen to see if the Fed acts to further reduce its big balance sheet of government securities.
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On the Tape Today | 6-14-17
INTU-Intuit formed a swing low after a bullish u-turn reversed a day of profit-taking. Game planning a new swing trade long with a $140.25 buy stop. The initial target to sell comes in at $144. Stop loss on a close below $139.
Tape Reading the SPY ETF
The stock market closed near the highs ahead of today’s FOMC rate decision.
Looking at the hourly chart the 60 minute candlesticks traded “well-bid” for the last 5 hours of the day. All signs point to bullish follow through for today’s open.
Volume clocked in on the lighter end of the scale just above 66 million. Not horrible, not great by any means. Reading the tape shows us that $244 is the level to watch. As long as the SPY stay above that price, looking for new long entries is the safe trade.
If the SPY begins trading below the open price and $244, I plan to lighten my share size. Yesterday’s price action showed us…again- the easier trades are in the direction of order flow. That migraine that you are feeling is from the first 90 minutes of the trading day.
Once upon a time the first hour and a half were the best time of day to earn 75% of your day. Volatility was consistent and volume was easy to read. it’s still there, just need to use a different clock.
Stock Market Today:
Stocks to Trade 6-14-17 | Wednesday Edition
Bullish Momentum: TSLA, CF, TSO, DD, DOW, DISH, LYB
Bearish Momentum: aaoi
Bullish Order Flow: TSLA, WDC, TSO, WYNN, MA, UNH, AET, BA, COST, DE, CCI, AMGN
Bearish Order Flow: kors, hds, dks, slb, trgp, fl, rspp, apc, dvn, nfx, trip, hes, pe, clr
Double Normal Volume: YHOO, NVDA, BABA, CBI, CAR, HLT
Inside Days: intc, c, x, pypl, m, dal, gild, ebay, wmt, met, momo, aal, teva, cvs, jci, bmy, dvn, mcd, ual, hes, ibm,
tjx, ntap, ea, cof, amgn, bbby, utx, fslr, dg
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