FOMC Minutes | Trading Game Plan August 19

Home builders continue to impress, let’s see if the release of the FOMC Minutes today puts a damper on the buying pressure or gives it a boost.

Quite a few inside days today. The best day trading set ups may be a breakout of the previous days high or low. This type of simple trading pattern can lead to a nice trend day. Not much of an edge for e general market, still a stock specific mindset.

Stock Market Today: Map of the S&P 500

(click the map for a full view)

FOMC Minutes

Day Trading Game Plan: The SPY ETF Chart

SPY price action didn’t give much to get excited about. Almost an inside day and a close below the open. No edge here long until the SPY trades above the $210.50 area.

(click the chart for a full view)

FOMC Minutes

Stocks to Trade | Wednesday August 19, 2015

Pete’s Notes:

  • A ton of inside candlesticks today.
  • FB upgrade produced a nice day trade, let’s see if we get follow through today.
  • Home builder stocks should be in your list.
  • LULU finally catching up with UA, NKE and FL. Not a buy yet but should be in your tracking journal.

Charts in Focus

Cerner Corp CERN

Clean bear flag pattern in CERN today. What makes the trade attractive is the close near the high and the resistance just above. A higher open that fails at resistance and then trades below yesterdays high is a solid plan.

(click the chart for a full view)

FOMC Minutes

Earnings in play today > 1M avg shares: AEO, LB, LOW, NTAP, MOMO, SPLS, TGT, YOKU

Bullish Ideas ATR/Volume/Price: UA, NFLX, AMZN, HD, NEE, TSO, VLO, MBLY, UNH, PSX, NKE, TWC

Bearish Ideas ATR/Volume/Price: gmcr, viab, qrvo, yelp, jd, uri, juno, bidu, swks, kss, paa, dvn, baba, lyb, rrc, cvx, cern, wynn, unp, mmm,

Weak Stock Weak Close: gmcr, viab, qrvo, yelp, biib, twtr, juno, swks, mur, urbn, vtr, grub, pot, kmi, lltc, mat

Strong Stock Weak Close: LUV, DAL, JBLU

Weak Stock Strong Close: tgna, bidu, rax, rrc, cern,

Strong Stock Strong Close: MAS, TJX, TOL, LEN, ROST, TSO, ARMK, BK, UNH

20 day Breakdown: wmt, hpq, urbn, bp, kkr, vtr, ntap, lvs, cnq, tgna, wynn

20 Day Breakout: DHI, HD, TJX, ARMK, MAS, PHM, LEN, MCD, UNH, ROST, TOL, GT, CAR, HOLX, KIM, LULU, HCN, AFL, HUM

2x Normal Volume: WMT, DHI, HD, LOW, TJX, ARMK, URBN, A, CCE

Watch List Longs: TJX, HD, TRV, VLO, BK, MCD, SBUX, HON>107, TWC, TOL, LEN, JNPR, ADBE

Watch List Short: kss, cop, cvx, all, wmt, xom, m, dow, hpq, lltc, qcom, ntap, klac

Inside days: aapl, ge, intc, emc, tsm, xom, dow, jnj, pg, abbv, wmb, met, mgm, yum, stx, twx, dd, mbly, crm, dvn, unp, usb, clr, wfm, wba, emr, mos, pgr, brcm, all, tmus, joy, cien, sti, cree, etn, cf, ip, ibm, hrb, mxim, d, mmm, wdc, pru

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FOMC Minutes | Trading Game Plan August 19

fomc minutes

FOMC Minutes Eyed as Chinese Sell-Off Continues

All eyes will be on the U.S. on Wednesday, with the minutes from the July FOMC meeting being released this evening and the latest CPI inflation figures early this afternoon.

The key event in the markets today is undoubtedly the release of the FOMC minutes from the meeting at the end of last month. The meeting was not followed by a press conference and so the only insight we’ve had to this point around what was discussed came from the statement, which actually told us very little.

What makes these minutes so important is the fact that September has long been touted as the month when the Fed will finally raise interest rates for the first time in more than nine years. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has herself repeatedly hinted that the Fed would rather raise rates this year as it will enable them to slowly return to the path of normalization without risking the recovery in the U.S. economy with fast sharp rate rises.

With that in mind, the minutes should offer insight into whether, as at the end of July, the Fed was still largely in agreement that this is still necessary and if so, when the likely take-off will occur, September or December.

Continue reading…

FOMC minutes might shed light on September’s lift-off – UOB

FXStreet (Edinburgh) – In the opinion of analysts at UOB Group, today’s FOMC minutes could give a hint of a potential Fed’s lift-off next month.

Key Quotes

“We will be receiving the minutes from the July FOMC meeting”.

“Although this meeting pre-dates China events and latest payrolls, hopefully we will get some clues on not just the first hike timing but also on the rate trajectory going forward”.

“Prior to the minutes, focus will be on CPI data. Together, both the minutes and CPI data will probably help us shape up expectations of a September rate hike”

Continue reading…

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Leave a Reply 7 comments

Passion4Trading Reply

Ultimately the edge in SPY will occur on high volume break above 211.45… until that time— above 210half this area will act as strong supply.

    Pete Renzulli Reply

    Thanks Lou.
    Appreciate that you take the time to present your ideas.

Passion4Trading Reply

Pete my man– CONTEXT IS KING! CERN is a very low odds setup. Why? Because of STRONG RELATIVE STRENGTH TO THE GENERAL MARKET. The daily bear flag pattern looks great… UNTIL u put it in CONTEXT: Close near the HOD on above avg daily volume.

The highest odds play for short is sitting on hands until 67half gets tested– which is gap ceiling supply combined with 50/200day sma resistance.

Your trade suggestion could certainly work… but probabilities ARE NOT IN YOUR FAVOR.

Go with the odds Pete.

    Passion4Trading Reply

    To expand further- the CONTEXT you want to see is at least CERN forming the bear flag pattern on relatively low volume to the upside… and a “weaker” advance relative to SPY in doing so. IOWs– if SPY had a strong move up Net$ChangeOpen 2% closing at highs on volume…. the highest odds conditions would be CERN only up 1% Net%ChangeOpen closing below HOD. THAT IS CALLED STACKING ODDS IN YOUR FAVOR.

    These odds exist EVERY DAY…u just gotta find the right names. Dont settle for B trades.

      Passion4Trading Reply

      To all who are reading — the price action in CERN comes as NO SURPRISE. The tale was told yesterday that the odds of withstanding a market drop were high.

        Passion4Trading Reply

        For a day trade idea- keep this name on your ticker list tomorrow for an entry above yesterday high (provided no complexion change takes place the rest of the day). The price action in names like this today will be the highest odds to go faster and further tomorrow with any market wind behind the sails.

          Pete Renzulli Reply

          Thank you for the follow up.

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