Today we’re going to take a little bit of a different twist on trading education. I’m essentially going to be responding to some of the email conversations that I get from mentoring clients and students.
I want to specifically touch on something that is an issue that is not talked about enough, but probably should be, and that’s the move over from-
“I’m starting to learn how to read charts, I’m getting involved in the business, and crossing the abyss from I know everything I’m supposed to know, but I’m not making any money yet.”
“It’s like, I see the patterns, I understand the routing, I understand the setups, and I understand risk/reward. I’m looking at everything, I know everything exactly what I’m supposed to be looking at, and I’m just not converting it into money.”
And then the emails that we get as a follow-up are basically insinuating, I got stopped out of my ideas today, and I’m probably the only person on Wall Street who got stopped out of my ideas.
I want to get to the point where you have some sort of a framework or a thought process or a structure to help you get the results that you want, crossing that abyss to trading consistency.
Now, I know the thought that everybody would like to have, or the desire that everybody would like to have, is getting to the point where I’m one of those traders, one of the big guys who’s putting up those numbers.
Stop listening to what everybody else is saying, stop caring about numbers that anybody else might be putting up. That’s great to hear, it’s inspirational, but you need to be able to get to a point where you can prove to yourself– “I know what I’m looking at, and I just took money out of the market for a month, 45 days, two months.”
Now you’ve got something working, and during that whole time you should be making a list of what’s working, what’s not working, what kind of conditions you like, what kind of conditions you don’t like.
Send me an email if you need help working on it.
Pete’s Day Trading Notes:
- Smart day traders are adapting and taking a short lunch. Consistent opportunity between noon-2pm.
- Despite the market drifting higher by the close, there are plenty of trades on both sides of the tape; TSO and FB short-sale trades yesterday were clear as a bell.
Stock Market Today: Map of the S&P 500
(click the map for a full view)
–> Top 25 Proprietary Trading Secrets
FOMC Minutes Gives Stock Traders Hope 2-17-16
The British Pound and US Dollar may decline as soft UK wages data and minutes from January’s FOMC meeting bolster dovish BOE and Fed monetary policy expectations.
The Minutes may reveal any bias to the Fed’s economic outlook that may in turn fed through to a market whose expectations of Fed policy have shifted dramatically since the turn of the year.
FOMC Minutes to Show Cautious Fed
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes that will be published on Wednesday, February 17 at 2:00 pm EST have the potential to create market disruption, but it will be limited given the events that unfolded in the three weeks between January’s FOMC meeting and the release of the notes.
The U.S. Federal Reserve opted not to raise rates after the end of its meeting in January. The market had forecasted the Fed to stand pat in the first FOMC of the year after the volatility in the first two weeks had drastically changed the macro economic outlook with a major sell off of equities in China and the price of oil dropping like a stone affecting commodity currencies.
With no press conference after the meeting, the market was unsure on what Fed members were influenced by the developments in the global economy.
Investors await FOMC minutes, U.S. data: https://t.co/GXy2BVXbe1
— Fabio Vanorio (@fabiovanorio) February 17, 2016
Chart Reading the SPY ETF
SPY continues impressive moves higher but each day with lighter volume. Continue to trade the short-term bias here because the order flow is neutral at best.
(click the chart for a full view)
Technical Analysis | Charts of Interest
$FB on finviz.com
#FB | Facebook showing unusual relative weakness to the general stock market. The indices rallied the last 2 trading days and $FB declined. Monitoring relative strength or weakness is an important skill for traders to develop.
(click the chart for a full view)
Stocks to Trade 2-17-16
Short-Term Trading Momentum:
Positive the last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% higher from the open: ETP, SPWR, NCR, WYNN, HRL, GRUB, CAR, USG, BBY, ADI, UA, JWN, MXIM, LVS, BBBY, SAVE, AKAM, COH, LLTC
Negative last 20 and 5 trading days | closed 2% lower from the open: mur, cop, tot, tso, dvn, wnr, clr
Quarterly Order Flow:
Bullish Stocks to Trade: ADT, DLTR, DG, TSN, KORS, RSOT, CHRW, FAST, HON, PM, CB, MCD, NEE, K, XOM, DUK, KMB, AEM
Bearish Stocks to Trade: dvn, aig, tso, vlo, nbl, crm, hfc, sbux, cern, esrx, gs, ctsh, luv, acn, hcp, mpc, vtr, tsla, hcn, adbe, lly, pnc, pru, stj, myl, c, ba, lnc, wdc, atvi, lnkd, incy, rcl, swks
20 Day Breakdown: fcs, tso
20 Day Breakout: WYNN, TSN, LVS, UNP, MAR, HON, AKAM, SKX, DE, K, STT, UPS, CB, BWA, HOT, SAVE, CHRW
2x Normal Volume: ADT, CYH, ETP, NGLS, BKD, WPZ, FEYE, GS, HCP, WYNN, FTI, HRL, TOT, TRGP
Inside days: aig, fti, mo, rai, expe, aep, vtr, ip, lb, ed, nfx, d, sndk