Crude Oil Futures Drop to 2004 Lows 1-6-16 | Stocks to Trade

Sometimes the charts don’t matter…

Technical analysis produces ideas based on price action we “chart.” We expect the trend to continue, sellers to offer supply at an obvious reference points and buyers to step up with demand at “support.”

Major news like the North Korea bombing and new 11 years lows in crude oil make the charts less reliable. Don’t expect levels to hold when major news hits the wire.

To trade this type of volatility requires tape reading skills. This means you rely on the most recent (intraday) reference points and trade the momentum until the bigger picture trends becomes obvious.

If a low risk trade is hard to find, it’s not there. If you see a nice continuation pattern, hop on board and enjoy the ride.

Stock Market Today: Map of the S&P 500

(click the map for a full view)

Crude Oil Futures Drop to 2004 Lows 1-6-16

Day Trading Game Plan: The SPY ETF Outlook

SPY price gap lower takes us through the descending channel which began on the November 13, lows. The next support is $196.33. The news always trumps the charts. North Korea and crude oil lows are big stories today.

(click the chart for a full view)

Crude Oil Futures Drop to 2004 Lows 1-6-16 | Stocks to Trade

Pete’s Notes:

  • North Korea bomb test shakes the market.
  • Another gap, stock picking is the name of the game right now. A broader market bias is not the play.
  • Retail stocks finding a bottom.

Technical Analysis | Charts of Interest

EA Electronic Arts

Short-sale trade.

EA continues to hit the bid near the $65 level, now showing a triple bottom. A breakdown through this level sets up a trade with a profit target of $60.25.

(click the chart for a full view)

Crude Oil Futures Drop to 2004 Lows 1-6-16

Crude Oil Futures Drop to 2004 Lows 1-6-16 | Stocks to Trade

> 20sma | positive the last 5 days | closed 2% higher from the open:  FSLR, HCN, OXY, PBF, TMUS

< 20sma | negative last 5 days | closed 2% lower from the open: fit, mbly, swks, clvs, rlyp, yelp, qynr, avgo, cf, skx, fosl, wba, aapl, nxpi, grub, nflx, qcom, thc, aer, ilmn, bwa, amzn, amba

Bullish Ideas ATR/Volume/Price: SCTY, FSLR, NEE, DLTR, VLO

Bearish Ideas ATR/Volume/Price: fit, mbly, swks, clvs, cf, bhi, fosl, aapl, nxpi, dis, thc, cof, ea, mpc, apc, cat, ual, kmx, wdc, pru, ibm, prgo, mmm, nsc, ua, eog, gild, baba

Weak Stock Weak Close: fit, mbly, swks, clvs, yelp, cf, bhi, skx, fosl, wba, aapl, nxpi, qcom, thc, aer, bwa, amba

Strong Stock Weak Close: SCTY, FSLR

Weak Stock Strong Close: bbby, cop, dks, hfc, hig, lng, rax, yhoo

Strong Stock Strong Close: FSLR, TMUS, HCN, HCP, KIM,

20 day Breakdown: fit, mbly, swks, qunr, avgo, cf, fosl, wba, dis, ea, axp, pypl, trip, ual, aal, expe, dal


2x Normal Volume: WSH, FIT, MBLY, FSLR

Watch List Longs: MCD, MO, GE>31, TJX>72, PM, KLAC,

Watch List Short: bhi, cof, dis, cop, bk, slb, pru, axp, all, abt, wfc, ntap, tol, ebay, akam, qcom,

Inside days: intc, yhoo, sbux, jd, gild, abt, cvx, aig, usb, abbv, bk, slb, jnj,  cfg, amzn, vlo, dhi, ccl, sti, bax, cl, ctsh, bbt, nue, cag, tsla, all, mar, mmm, cern, pnc

U.S. Oil Boom In 2016: Exports Or Bankruptcies?

The new year is already shaping up to be a historic one for energy companies as the U.S. exported crude for the first time since the 1970s on Dec. 31, but low oil prices will continue to pressure smaller firms with weaker balance sheets.

In December, Magnum Hunter Resources filed for bankruptcy protection, and dozens of smaller producers have filed in 2015, with the pace likely to pick up this year. “Banks are going to clamp down and are not going to be as generous as in 2015,” said Dan Guffey, VP of equity research at Stifel Nicolaus.

The prospect of less financing from banks comes as energy companies rely less on the bond and equity markets to raise liquidity. And over-leveraged firms in particular will feel the squeeze, as oil is expected to stay lower for longer.

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